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A note on the two assumptions of standard unobserved components models

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  • Nagakura, Daisuke

Abstract

In this note, I consider a general class of unobserved components (UC) models and derive a relevant inequality. This inequality implies that either of the two assumptions of standard UC models, namely, a random walk trend and uncorrelated shocks, is not satisfied if the impulse response measure introduced by [Campbell, J.Y. and N.G. Mankiw, 1987a. Are output fluctuations transitory? Quarterly Journal of Economics 102, 857-880, Campbell, J.Y. and N.G. Mankiw, 1987b. Permanent and transitory components in macroeconomic fluctuations, American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings) 77, 111-117] is greater than 1.

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  • Nagakura, Daisuke, 2008. "A note on the two assumptions of standard unobserved components models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 123-125, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:100:y:2008:i:1:p:123-125
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    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1992. "On persistence of shocks to economic variables : A common misconception," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 87-93, February.
    3. Quah, Danny, 1992. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 107-118, January.
    4. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 857-880.
    5. Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1994. "Diffusion of Technical Change and the Decomposition of Output into Trend and Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 19-30.
    6. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1989. "International evidence on the persistence of economic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 319-333, March.
    7. Raj, Baldev, 1993. "An International Study of Persistence in Output: Parametric Estimates using the Data Dependent Systems Approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 173-195.
    8. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Permanent and Transitory Components in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 111-117, May.
    9. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
    10. Demery, D & Duck, N W, 1992. "Are Economic Fluctuations Really Persistent? A Reinterpretation of Some International Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(414), pages 1094-1101, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Zhiwei, 2008. "Univariate Unobserved-Component Model with Non-Random Walk Permanent Component," MPRA Paper 12038, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Xu, Zhiwei, 2008. "Univariate Unobserved-Component Model with Non-Random Walk Permanent Component," MPRA Paper 46162, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Xu, Zhiwei, 2008. "Univariate Unobserved-Component Model with a Non-Random-Walk Permanent Component," MPRA Paper 50053, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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