Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020

Contents:

Author Info

  • O' Mahony, Tadhg
  • Zhou, P.
  • Sweeney, John

Abstract

This paper presents future scenarios of Irish energy-related CO2 emissions to 2020, using a combination of multi-sectoral decomposition analysis with scenario analysis. Alternative development paths, driving forces and sectoral contributions in different scenarios have been explored. The scenarios are quantified by using decomposition analysis as a Divisia Index SCenario GENerator (DISCGEN). The driving forces of population, economic and social development, energy resources and technology and governance and policies are discussed. A set of four integrated or ‘hybrid’ qualitative and quantitative baseline emission scenarios are developed. It is found that sectoral contributions and emissions in each scenario vary significantly. The inclusion of governance, social and cultural driving forces are important in determining alternative development paths and sustainability is crucial. Our empirical results show that decomposition analysis is a useful technique to generate the alternative scenarios.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800913002152
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Ecological Economics.

Volume (Year): 93 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 385-397

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:93:y:2013:i:c:p:385-397

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon

Related research

Keywords: Decomposition analysis; Scenario analysis; CO2 emissions;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Anzelika Zaiceva & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2008. "Scale, diversity, and determinants of�labour migration in Europe," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 428-452, Autumn.
  2. David Rae & Paul van den Noord, 2006. "Ireland's Housing Boom: What has Driven it and Have Prices Overshot?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 492, OECD Publishing.
  3. Girod, Bastien & de Haan, Peter, 2009. "GHG reduction potential of changes in consumption patterns and higher quality levels: Evidence from Swiss household consumption survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5650-5661, December.
  4. Ang, B. W., 2004. "Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:: which is the preferred method?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1131-1139, June.
  5. Poumanyvong, Phetkeo & Kaneko, Shinji, 2010. "Does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower CO2 emissions? A cross-country analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 434-444, December.
  6. Ribeiro, Suzana K & Kobayashi, Shigeki & Beuthe, Michel & Gasca, Jorge & Greene, David & Lee, David S. & Muromachi, Yasunori & Newton, Peter J. & Plotkin, Steven & Sperling, Daniel & Wit, Ron & Zhou, , 2007. "Transportation and its Infrastructure," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt98m5t1rv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
  7. Stefan Kruger Nielsen & Kenneth Karlsson, 2007. "Energy scenarios: a review of methods, uses and suggestions for improvement," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 27(3), pages 302-322.
  8. Winebrake, James J. & Sakva, Denys, 2006. "An evaluation of errors in US energy forecasts: 1982-2003," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3475-3483, December.
  9. Rout, Ullash K. & Akimoto, Keigo & Sano, Fuminori & Oda, Junichiro & Homma, Takashi & Tomoda, Toshimasa, 2008. "Impact assessment of the increase in fossil fuel prices on the global energy system, with and without CO2 concentration stabilization," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3477-3484, September.
  10. Hatzigeorgiou, Emmanouil & Polatidis, Heracles & Haralambopoulos, Dias, 2008. "CO2 emissions in Greece for 1990–2002: A decomposition analysis and comparison of results using the Arithmetic Mean Divisia Index and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index techniques," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 492-499.
  11. Tapio, Petri & Banister, David & Luukkanen, Jyrki & Vehmas, Jarmo & Willamo, Risto, 2007. "Energy and transport in comparison: Immaterialisation, dematerialisation and decarbonisation in the EU15 between 1970 and 2000," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 433-451, January.
  12. Sorrell, Steve & Lehtonen, Markku & Stapleton, Lee & Pujol, Javier & Champion, Toby, 2009. "Decomposing road freight energy use in the United Kingdom," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3115-3129, August.
  13. Devitt, Conor & Hennessy, Hugh & Lyons, Seán & Murphy, Liam & Tol, Richard S. J., 2010. "The Energy and Environment Review 2010," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS19, September.
  14. Kwon, Tae-Hyeong, 2005. "A scenario analysis of CO2 emission trends from car travel: Great Britain 2000-2030," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 175-184, March.
  15. Usher, Will & Strachan, Neil, 2012. "Critical mid-term uncertainties in long-term decarbonisation pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 433-444.
  16. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2009. "Recovery Scenarios for Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS007, September.
  17. Linderoth, Hans, 2002. "Forecast errors in IEA-countries' energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 53-61, January.
  18. Kaivo-oja, Jari & Luukkanen, Jyrki, 2004. "The European Union balancing between CO2 reduction commitments and growth policies: decomposition analyses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(13), pages 1511-1530, September.
  19. Ang, B.W. & Liu, F.L., 2001. "A new energy decomposition method: perfect in decomposition and consistent in aggregation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 537-548.
  20. Richmond, Amy K. & Kaufmann, Robert K., 2006. "Is there a turning point in the relationship between income and energy use and/or carbon emissions?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 176-189, February.
  21. Diakoulaki, D. & Mandaraka, M., 2007. "Decomposition analysis for assessing the progress in decoupling industrial growth from CO2 emissions in the EU manufacturing sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 636-664, July.
  22. Ang, B.W. & Zhang, F.Q., 2000. "A survey of index decomposition analysis in energy and environmental studies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 1149-1176.
  23. Pilavachi, P.A. & Dalamaga, Th. & Rossetti di Valdalbero, D. & Guilmot, J.-F., 2008. "Ex-post evaluation of European energy models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1726-1735, May.
  24. Mander, Sarah. L. & Bows, Alice & Anderson, Kevin. L. & Shackley, Simon & Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul, 2008. "The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios--Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3754-3763, October.
  25. Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul & Iacopini, Giorgia & Anderson, Kevin & Bows, Alice & Mander, Sarah & Shackley, Simon, 2009. "Different scenarios for achieving radical reduction in carbon emissions: A decomposition analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(6), pages 1652-1666, April.
  26. Leontief, Wassily & Duchin, Faye, 1986. "The Future Impact of Automation on Workers," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195036237, October.
  27. Steenhof, Paul A., 2007. "Decomposition for emission baseline setting in China's electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 280-294, January.
  28. Stuart Gaffin, 1998. "World Population Projections for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 133-170, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:93:y:2013:i:c:p:385-397. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.