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Pair trading based on quantile forecasting of smooth transition GARCH models

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  • Chen, Cathy W.S.
  • Wang, Zona
  • Sriboonchitta, Songsak
  • Lee, Sangyeol

Abstract

Pair trading is a statistical arbitrage strategy used on similar assets with dissimilar valuations. We utilize smooth transition heteroskedastic models with a second-order logistic function to generate trading entry and exit signals and suggest two pair trading strategies: the first uses the upper and lower threshold values in the proposed model as trading entry and exit signals, while the second strategy instead takes one-step-ahead quantile forecasts obtained from the same model. We employ Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods for updating the estimates and quantile forecasts. As an illustration, we conduct a simulation study and empirical analysis of the daily stock returns of 36 stocks from U.S. stock markets. We use the minimum square distance method to select ten stock pairs, choose additional five pairs consisting of two companies in the same industrial sector, and then finally consider pair trading profits for two out-of-sample periods in 2014 within a six-month time frame as well as for the entire year. The proposed strategies yield average annualized returns of at least 35.5% without a transaction cost and at least 18.4% with a transaction cost.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Cathy W.S. & Wang, Zona & Sriboonchitta, Songsak & Lee, Sangyeol, 2017. "Pair trading based on quantile forecasting of smooth transition GARCH models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 38-55.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:39:y:2017:i:c:p:38-55
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2016.10.015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lin, Tsai-Yu & Chen, Cathy W.S. & Syu, Fong-Yi, 2021. "Multi-asset pair-trading strategy: A statistical learning approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    2. Jolanta Tamošaitienė & Vahidreza Yousefi & Hamed Tabasi, 2021. "Project Portfolio Construction Using Extreme Value Theory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-13, January.
    3. Day Yang Liu & Ming Chen Chun & Yi Kai Su, 2021. "The impacts of Covid-19 pandemic on the smooth transition dynamics of stock market index volatilities for the Four Asian Tigers and Japan," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 10(4), pages 183-194, June.
    4. Day-Yang Liu & Chun-Ming Chen & Yi-Kai Su, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Smooth Transition Dynamics of Broad-based Indices Volatilities in Taiwan," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(5), pages 1-14.
    5. Yi-Kai Su & Kae-Yih Tzeng & Chun-Jan Tseng & Cheng-Hsien Lin, 2024. "The Influence of Defense Industry Development Act on the Smooth Transition Dynamics of Stock Volatilities of Defense Industry," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 14(3), pages 1-7.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pair trading; Bayesian inference; Smooth transition GARCH model; Second-order logistic transition function; Markov chain Monte Carlo methods; Out-of-sample forecasts; Quantile forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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