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From pro-natalist rhetoric to population policies in Turkey? An OLG general equilibrium analysis

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  • Georges, Patrick
  • Seçkin, Aylin

Abstract

We build an overlapping generation (OLG) general equilibrium model of Turkey with survival rates and endogenous labour supply to simulate the economic, fiscal, welfare, and intergenerational redistribution impacts of the medium and high fertility demographic scenarios projected by the United Nations. We assume that the high fertility variant is a realistic demographic proxy for pro-natalist policies in Turkey. Our results show that on a purely economic basis, a higher fertility scenario in Turkey appears open to criticisms as it cannot offset the social security pressures of ageing, and it also involves intergenerational welfare redistributions so that current young adults are unlikely to endorse natalist rhetoric and policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Georges, Patrick & Seçkin, Aylin, 2016. "From pro-natalist rhetoric to population policies in Turkey? An OLG general equilibrium analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 79-93.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:56:y:2016:i:c:p:79-93
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.03.014
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    2. Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz & Magda Malec, 2018. "Evaluating welfare and economic effects of raised fertility," GRAPE Working Papers 25, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    3. Marie Claude Kamar & Riccardo Magnani, 2022. "Population ageing and labor market frictions. An OLG model applied to Lebanon," Working Papers 3, SITES.
    4. Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz & Magda Malec, 2019. "Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Raised Fertility in Poland: Overlapping Generations Model Estimates," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(4), pages 795-818, December.
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    6. Judit Sági & Csaba Lentner, 2018. "Certain Aspects of Family Policy Incentives for Childbearing—A Hungarian Study with an International Outlook," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-16, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic transition; Pro-natalist policies; Social security reforms; Overlapping-generation general equilibrium modelling; Turkey's economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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