IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v51y2015icp308-314.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling dependence structures among international stock markets: Evidence from hierarchical Archimedean copulas

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Lu
  • Cai, Xiao Jing
  • Li, Mengling
  • Hamori, Shigeyuki

Abstract

This study investigates dependence structures among international stock markets, including developed, emerging, and frontier markets, using the hierarchical Archimedean copula model. Empirical results indicate that emerging markets show the strongest dependence with European markets. Frontier markets show the weakest dependence with other market. After the global financial crisis, the lower dependence structure among the international stock markets has changed. Negative news have a larger impact on the degree of dependence than positive news. Contagion effect is observed in both the global financial crisis and the EU debt crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Lu & Cai, Xiao Jing & Li, Mengling & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2015. "Modeling dependence structures among international stock markets: Evidence from hierarchical Archimedean copulas," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 308-314.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:51:y:2015:i:c:p:308-314
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.08.017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999315002291
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.08.017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lu Yang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2013. "Dependence structure among international stock markets: a GARCH--copula analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(23), pages 1805-1817, December.
    2. Lee, Tae-Hwy & Long, Xiangdong, 2009. "Copula-based multivariate GARCH model with uncorrelated dependent errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 207-218, June.
    3. de Groot, Wilma & Pang, Juan & Swinkels, Laurens, 2012. "The cross-section of stock returns in frontier emerging markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 796-818.
    4. Jones, Paul M. & Olson, Eric, 2013. "The time-varying correlation between uncertainty, output, and inflation: Evidence from a DCC-GARCH model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 33-37.
    5. Westerlund, Joakim & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Zheng, Xinwei, 2015. "Testing for stock return predictability in a large Chinese panel," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 81-100.
    6. repec:taf:jnlbes:v:30:y:2012:i:2:p:212-228 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Joakim Westerlund & Paresh K Narayan & Xinwei Zheng, "undated". "Testing For Stock Return Predictability In A Large Chinese Panel," Working Papers 2015_11, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
    8. Aloui, Riadh & Ben Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "Conditional dependence structure between oil prices and exchange rates: A copula-GARCH approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 719-738.
    9. Baumöhl, Eduard & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2014. "Volatility and dynamic conditional correlations of worldwide emerging and frontier markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 175-183.
    10. Samarakoon, Lalith P., 2011. "Stock market interdependence, contagion, and the U.S. financial crisis: The case of emerging and frontier markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 724-742.
    11. Okhrin, Ostap & Okhrin, Yarema & Schmid, Wolfgang, 2013. "On the structure and estimation of hierarchical Archimedean copulas," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(2), pages 189-204.
    12. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    13. Long, Ling & Tsui, Albert K. & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2014. "Estimating time-varying currency betas with contagion: New evidence from developed and emerging financial markets," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 10-24.
    14. Zolotko, Mikhail & Okhrin, Ostap, 2014. "Modelling the general dependence between commodity forward curves," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 284-296.
    15. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Thuraisamy, Kannan S., 2015. "Can governance quality predict stock market returns? New global evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 367-380.
    16. Zhang, Bing & Li, Xindan & Yu, Honghai, 2013. "Has recent financial crisis changed permanently the correlations between BRICS and developed stock markets?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 725-738.
    17. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2011. "International diversification: A copula approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 403-417, February.
    18. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2006. "The Copula-GARCH model of conditional dependencies: An international stock market application," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 827-853, August.
    19. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Reboredo, Juan Carlos & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Do global factors impact BRICS stock markets? A quantile regression approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 1-17.
    20. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
    21. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Thuraisamy, Kannan Sivananthan, 2014. "Can institutions and macroeconomic factors predict stock returns in emerging markets?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 77-95.
    22. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sehgal, Sanjay & Pandey, Piyush & Diesting, Florent, 2017. "Examining dynamic currency linkages amongst South Asian economies: An empirical study," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 173-190.
    2. Nguyen, Cuong & Bhatti, M. Ishaq & Komorníková, Magda & Komorník, Jozef, 2016. "Gold price and stock markets nexus under mixed-copulas," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 283-292.
    3. Bellenzier, Lucia & Vitting Andersen, Jørgen & Rotundo, Giulia, 2016. "Contagion in the world's stock exchanges seen as a set of coupled oscillators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 224-236.
    4. Labidi, Chiaz & Rahman, Md Lutfur & Hedström, Axel & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Bekiros, Stelios, 2018. "Quantile dependence between developed and emerging stock markets aftermath of the global financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 179-211.
    5. Lin, Saiyan & Chen, Rongda & Lv, Zhihong & Zhou, Tianqing & Jin, Chenglu, 2019. "Integrated measurement of liquidity risk and market risk of company bonds based on the optimal Copula model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    6. Ojea-Ferreiro, Javier & Reboredo, Juan C., 2022. "Exchange rates and the global transmission of equity market shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    7. Prince Osei Mensah & Anokye M. Adam, 2020. "Copula-Based Assessment of Co-Movement and Tail Dependence Structure Among Major Trading Foreign Currencies in Ghana," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-20, June.
    8. Sanjay Sehgal & Piyush Pandey & Florent Deisting, 2018. "Time varying integration amongst the South Asian equity markets: An empirical study," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1452328-145, January.
    9. Yunsong Xu & Hanying Qi & Jiaqi Li & Ning Ding, 2021. "The Risk Spillover Effects of the Real Estate Industry on the Financial Industry: A GARCH-Time-Varying-Copula-CoVaR Approach on China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, December.
    10. Sanjay Sehgal & Piyush Pandey & Florent Deisting, 2018. "Stock Market Integration Dynamics and its Determinants in the East Asian Economic Community Region," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(2), pages 389-425, June.
    11. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Al Refai, Hisham, 2019. "Political tensions, stock market dependence and volatility spillover: Evidence from the recent intra-GCC crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    12. Lei, Lei & Peng, Yijie & Fu, Michael C. & Hu, Jian-Qiang, 2023. "Copula sensitivity analysis for portfolio credit derivatives," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 308(1), pages 455-466.
    13. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Addo, Emmanuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2021. "Re-examination of international bond market dependence: Evidence from a pair copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Mensah, Jones Odei & Alagidede, Paul, 2017. "How are Africa's emerging stock markets related to advanced markets? Evidence from copulas," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-10.
    15. Phong Nguyen & Wei-han Liu, 2017. "Time-Varying Linkage of Possible Safe Haven Assets: A Cross-Market and Cross-asset Analysis," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 43-76, March.
    16. Zhu, Xiaoqian & Wei, Lu & Li, Jianping, 2021. "A two-stage general approach to aggregate multiple bank risks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    17. A. Ford Ramsey & Barry K. Goodwin, 2019. "Value-at-Risk and Models of Dependence in the U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-21, April.
    18. Yang, Lu & Yang, Lei & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2018. "Determinants of dependence structures of sovereign credit default swap spreads between G7 and BRICS countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 19-34.
    19. Sanjay Sehgal & Piyush Pandey & Florent Deisting, 2018. "Time varying integration amongst the South Asian equity markets: An empirical study," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1452328-145, January.
    20. Alexakis, Christos & Pappas, Vasileios, 2018. "Sectoral dynamics of financial contagion in Europe - The cases of the recent crises episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 222-239.
    21. Nguyen, Cuong & Ishaq Bhatti, M. & Henry, Darren, 2017. "Are Vietnam and Chinese stock markets out of the US contagion effect in extreme events?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 480(C), pages 10-21.
    22. Benlagha, Noureddine, 2020. "Stock market dependence in crisis periods: Evidence from oil price shocks and the Qatar blockade," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    23. Mokni, Khaled & Mansouri, Faysal, 2017. "Conditional dependence between international stock markets: A long memory GARCH-copula model approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 42, pages 116-131.
    24. Jiang, Kunliang & Ye, Wuyi, 2022. "Does the asymmetric dependence volatility affect risk spillovers between the crude oil market and BRICS stock markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    25. Mo, Guoli & Zhang, Weiguo & Tan, Chunzhi & Liu, Xing, 2022. "Predicting the portfolio risk of high-dimensional international stock indices with dynamic spatial dependence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mokni, Khaled & Mansouri, Faysal, 2017. "Conditional dependence between international stock markets: A long memory GARCH-copula model approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 42, pages 116-131.
    2. Lu Yang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2013. "Dependence structure among international stock markets: a GARCH--copula analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(23), pages 1805-1817, December.
    3. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng & Westerlund, Joakim, 2016. "A GARCH model for testing market efficiency," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 121-138.
    4. Yang, Lu & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2014. "Dependence structure between CEEC-3 and German government securities markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 109-125.
    5. Kotkatvuori-Örnberg, Juha, 2016. "Dynamic conditional copula correlation and optimal hedge ratios with currency futures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 60-69.
    6. Leonidas Tsiaras, 2010. "Dynamic Models of Exchange Rate Dependence Using Option Prices and Historical Returns," CREATES Research Papers 2010-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. Leopoldo Catania, 2016. "Dynamic Adaptive Mixture Models," Papers 1603.01308, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    8. Das, Suman & Roy, Saikat Sinha, 2023. "Following the leaders? A study of co-movement and volatility spillover in BRICS currencies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    9. Cerrato, Mario & Crosby, John & Kim, Minjoo & Zhao, Yang, 2015. "US Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Conflict or Cooperation?," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-78, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Patton, Andrew J., 2012. "A review of copula models for economic time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 4-18.
    11. Phong Nguyen & Wei-han Liu, 2017. "Time-Varying Linkage of Possible Safe Haven Assets: A Cross-Market and Cross-asset Analysis," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 43-76, March.
    12. brayek, Angham ben & Sebai, Saber & Naoui, Kamel, 2015. "A study of the interactive relationship between oil price and exchange rate: A copula approach and a DCC-MGARCH model," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 173-189.
    13. Mauro Bernardi & Leopoldo Catania, 2015. "Switching-GAS Copula Models With Application to Systemic Risk," Papers 1504.03733, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    14. BAUWENS, Luc & HAFNER, Christian & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2011. "Volatility models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
      • Bauwens, L. & Hafner, C. & Laurent, S., 2012. "Volatility Models," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2012028, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
      • Bauwens, L. & Hafner C. & Laurent, S., 2011. "Volatility Models," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2011044, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    15. Mario Cerrato & John Crosby & Minjoo Kim & Yang Zhao, 2015. "Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Market Risk with Dynamic Asymmetric Copula," Working Papers 2015_15, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    16. So, Mike K.P. & Chan, Thomas W.C. & Chu, Amanda M.Y., 2022. "Efficient estimation of high-dimensional dynamic covariance by risk factor mapping: Applications for financial risk management," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 151-167.
    17. Takashi Isogai, 2015. "An Empirical Study of the Dynamic Correlation of Japanese Stock Returns," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    18. Janus, Paweł & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2014. "Long memory dynamics for multivariate dependence under heavy tails," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 187-206.
    19. Burda Martin & Bélisle Louis, 2019. "Copula multivariate GARCH model with constrained Hamiltonian Monte Carlo," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 133-149, January.
    20. Qureshi, Fiza & Khan, Habib Hussain & Rehman, Ijaz Ur & Ghafoor, Abdul & Qureshi, Saba, 2019. "Mutual fund flows and investors’ expectations in BRICS economies: Implications for international diversification," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 130-150.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:51:y:2015:i:c:p:308-314. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.