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Estimating inflation compensation for Turkey using yield curves

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  • Duran, Murat
  • Gülşen, Eda

Abstract

Inflation compensation derived from nominal and real bond yields contains market based, real time information regarding the inflation expectations and the pricing of inflation risks. In this study, we calculate inflation compensation for Turkey by using nominal and real yield curves. The findings of event study analysis on inflation compensation indicate that changes in the term structure of inflation compensation contain information regarding the credibility of monetary authority. Moreover, we find that, at daily frequency, liquidity conditions have no significant effect on inflation compensation and hence the effects of events such as monetary policy decisions and inflation surprises on inflation compensation can be attributed mainly to changes in inflation expectations and pricing of inflation uncertainty.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 32 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 592-601

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:592-601

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

Related research

Keywords: Inflation compensation; Real yield; Event study;

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References

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  1. Christensen, Ian & Frédéric Dion & Christopher Reid, 2004. "Real Return Bonds, Inflation Expectations, and the Break-Even Inflation Rate," Working Papers 04-43, Bank of Canada.
  2. Özge AKINCI & Burcu GÜRCİHAN & Refet GÜRKAYNAK & Özgür ÖZEL, 2007. "Devlet iç borçlanma senetleri için getiri eğrisi tahmini," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 22(252), pages 5-25.
  3. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
  4. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2011, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Stefania D'Amico & Don H. Kim & Min Wei, 2008. "Tips from TIPS: the informational content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Markus Jochmann & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "Modeling the Dynamics of Inflation Compensation," Working Paper Series 15_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2009.
  7. Pu Shen, 2006. "Liquidity risk premia and breakeven inflation rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 29-54.
  8. Refet S. G�rkaynak & Brian Sack & Jonathan H. Wright, 2010. "The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 70-92, January.
  9. Rose Cunningham & Brigitte Desroches & Eric Santor, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and the Conduct of Monetary Policy: A Review of Recent Evidence and Experience," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2010(Spring), pages 13-25.
  10. Bank for International Settlements, 2005. "Zero-coupon yield curves: technical documentation," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 25, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Murat Duran & Eda Gulsen & Orhun Sevinc, 2013. "Cesitli Enflasyon Beklentisi Olcutleri Kullanilarak Genel Bir Enflasyon Beklentisi Gostergesi Elde Edilmesi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1313, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

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