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Corporation tax revenue growth in the UK: A microsimulation analysis

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Author Info
Creedy, John
Gemmell, Norman

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Abstract

This paper examines the built-in flexibility properties -- as measured by the elasticity of revenue with respect to profits -- of the UK corporation tax system. Emphasis is placed on determining some of the major influences on the extent to which total corporation tax revenue changes when profits change over the economic cycle. A microsimulation model, CorpSim, is constructed and used to obtain numerical results. In the model, corporations use group relief, capital allowances and losses in a tax-minimising manner. The growth of aggregate corporation tax revenue in practice in the UK appears to be highly volatile in relation to the growth of profits. High volatility in revenue elasticities is found to be especially associated with economic downturns. In mild economic downturns, corporation tax revenue elasticities may rise (because tax growth falls less than profit growth), but in more severe downturns, large but temporary decreases in revenue elasticities (and even negative elasticities) can be expected.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VB1-4VPV8VW-1/2/1283ef753abc8ae90b16786aa14deb3e
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 26 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 614-625
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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:26:y:2009:i:3:p:614-625

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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Related research
Keywords: Corporation tax Microsimulation modelling UK tax revenue growth;

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  1. John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2007. "Modelling Behavioural Responses to Profit Taxation: The Case of the UK Corporation Tax," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 998, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  2. Joanna Piotrowska & Werner Vanborren, 2008. "The corporate income tax rate-revenue paradox: Evidence in the EU," Taxation Papers 12, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission, revised Oct 2008. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-7.


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