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Dynamic heterogeneity in cross-country growth relationships

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  • Edwards, Jeffrey A.
  • Kasibhatla, Krishna

Abstract

Empirical literature examining cross-country growth within the simple Solow framework invariably chooses to let the relationships between growth and its determinants stay constant over time. In an era of rapidly changing economies, this may not be wise. We track these correlations from 1982 until 2003. We find that the relationships between the standard determinants and growth are for the most part, quite stable; however, one-quarter of them do change in a significant way. Theoretically, the findings are interesting because of the possible causes for the structural changes, and the fact that three-quarters of the relationships are stable when maybe they shouldn't be. Methodologically, the findings are interesting because modelers using these variables should account for this heterogeneity to reduce bias when drawing inference from data spanning this period.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 26 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 445-455

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:26:y:2009:i:2:p:445-455

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

Related research

Keywords: Solow Growth GMM Heterogeneity;

References

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  1. Milton Barossi-Filho & Ricardo Gonçalves Silva & Eliezer Martins Diniz, 2005. "The empirics of the Solow growth model: Long-term evidence," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 31-51, May.
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  3. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Jeffrey Edwards, 2005. "The Great Growth Debate: A Statistical Look at Mankiw, Romer, and Weil, versus Islam," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(1), pages 71-92, March.
  5. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2004. "The Solow model with CES technology: nonlinearities and parameter heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 171-201.
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  10. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment Updates and Implications," NBER Working Papers 7911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Edwards Jeffrey A, 2007. "Dynamics of the Cross-Country Growth/Volatility Relationship," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 1-20, June.
  12. Durlauf,S.N. & Kourtellos,A. & Minkin,A., 2000. "The local Solow growth model," Working papers 21, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  13. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
  14. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  15. Spanos,Aris, 1986. "Statistical Foundations of Econometric Modelling," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521269124, October.
  16. Ruxandra Prodan, 2004. "Potential Pitfalls in Determining Multiple Structural Changes with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 90, Econometric Society.
  17. Edwards Jeffrey A & Thames Frank C. & Edwards Martin S., 2006. "Measuring the Dissemination of Volatility across Levels of Development," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-40, November.
  18. Carlos Santos & Maria Alberta Oliveira, 2010. "Assessing French inflation persistence with impulse saturation break tests and automatic general-to-specific modelling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(12), pages 1577-1589.
  19. Edwards Jeffrey A & Sams Alfred & Yang Benhua, 2006. "A Refinement in the Specification of Empirical Macroeconomic Models as an Extension to the EBA Procedure," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-26, October.
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  22. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. " Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-89, September.
  23. Binder, Michael & Pesaran, M Hashem, 1999. " Stochastic Growth Models and Their Econometric Implications," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 139-83, June.
  24. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, 06.
  25. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
  26. Christopher F. Baum, 2004. "Stata: The language of choice for time series analysis?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 598, Boston College Department of Economics.
  27. Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1997. "Growth and Convergence in Multi-country Empirical Stochastic Solow Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 357-92, July-Aug..
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Cited by:
  1. cole, Chip & Edwards, Jeffrey A., 2010. "Competition on MARS? A study of broker-dealer competition in the U.S. municipal auction rate securities market," MPRA Paper 36444, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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