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On the specification of noise in two agent-based asset pricing models

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  • Franke, Reiner
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    Abstract

    The paper is concerned with two recent agent-based models of speculative dynamics from the literature, one by Gaunersdorfer and Hommes (2007) and the other by He and Li (2007). At short as well as long lags, both of them display an autocorrelation structure in absolute and squared returns that comes fairly close to that of real data at a daily frequency. The note argues that these long memory effects are to be ascribed to the stochastic specification of the price equation, which despite the wide fluctuations in these models fails to normalize the price shocks. Under an appropriate respecification, the long memory completely disappears. It is subsequently shown that an alternative introduction of randomness, which may be called structural stochastic volatility, can restore the original properties and even improves upon them.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V85-4YB5M0K-3/2/91bb419bf62ed264872692b8d67dfb97
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 6 (June)
    Pages: 1140-1152

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:6:p:1140-1152

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

    Related research

    Keywords: Volatility clustering Autocorrelations of returns Structural stochastic volatility Heterogeneous agents;

    References

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    1. Boswijk, H.P. & Hommes C.H. & Manzan, S., 2005. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    2. He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Youwei, 2007. "Power-law behaviour, heterogeneity, and trend chasing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3396-3426, October.
    3. Cars H. Hommes, 2005. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-056/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. LeBaron, Blake, 2006. "Agent-based Computational Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1187-1233 Elsevier.
    5. Amilon, Henrik, 2008. "Estimation of an adaptive stock market model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 342-362, March.
    6. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    7. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Hommes, Cars, 2006. "Moving average rules as a source of market instability," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 370(1), pages 12-17.
    8. Manzan, Sebastiano & Westerhoff, Frank, 2005. "Representativeness of news and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 677-689, April.
    9. Westerhoff, Frank, 2003. "Speculative markets and the effectiveness of price limits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-508, December.
    10. Frank H. Westerhoff, 2008. "The Use of Agent-Based Financial Market Models to Test the Effectiveness of Regulatory Policies," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 228(2+3), pages 195-227, June.
    11. Cars Hommes & Florian Wagener, 2008. "Complex Evolutionary Systems in Behavioral Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-054/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Simone Alfarano & Thomas Lux & Friedrich Wagner, 2005. "Estimation of Agent-Based Models: The Case of an Asymmetric Herding Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 19-49, August.
    13. Beja, Avraham & Goldman, M Barry, 1980. " On the Dynamic Behavior of Prices in Disequilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 235-48, May.
    14. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
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    Cited by:
    1. Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2013. "Speculative behavior and the dynamics of interacting stock markets," BERG Working Paper Series 90, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    2. Fabio Tramontana & Frank Westerhoff & Laura Gardini, 2010. "On the complicated price dynamics of a simple one-dimensional discontinuous financial market model with heterogeneous interacting traders," Working Papers 1005, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2010.

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