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Harvesting and recovery decisions under uncertainty

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Author Info

  • Shackleton, Mark B.
  • Sødal, Sigbjørn

Abstract

A stochastic forest rotation model in the Faustmann tradition is presented and exemplified. The model combines harvesting decisions with the potential to recover or clean up to restore the land after very unfavorable evolutions of the stochastic growth process. Uncertainty is shown to have a generally ambiguous effect on the optimal choice of investment strategy. It is also shown how such models can be related to theory of optimal inventory control.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V85-50GWN3C-3/2/2cbcc29a2cffa402da738d6efd54b928
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 12 (December)
Pages: 2533-2546

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:12:p:2533-2546

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

Related research

Keywords: Investment Uncertainty Forest growth Real options;

References

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  1. Margaret Insley & Kimberly Rollins, 2005. "On Solving the Multirotational Timber Harvesting Problem with Stochastic Prices: A Linear Complementarity Formulation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(3), pages 735-755.
  2. Rosen, Sherwin, 1974. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(1), pages 34-55, Jan.-Feb..
  3. Dixit, Avinash, 1991. "A simplified treatment of the theory of optimal regulation of Brownian motion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 657-673, October.
  4. Willassen, Yngve, 1998. "The stochastic rotation problem: A generalization of Faustmann's formula to stochastic forest growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 573-596, April.
  5. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
  6. Luis H. R. Alvarez, 2001. "Reward functionals, salvage values, and optimal stopping," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 315-337, December.
  7. Alvarez, Luis H R & Koskela, Erkki, 2003. "On Forest Rotation under Interest Rate Variability," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 489-503, August.
  8. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1975. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 64, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  9. Sodal, Sigbjorn, 2006. "Entry and exit decisions based on a discount factor approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 1963-1986, November.
  10. Luis Alvarez & Jukka Virtanen, 2006. "A class of solvable stochastic dividend optimization problems: on the general impact of flexibility on valuation," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 373-398, 06.
  11. Shackleton, Mark B. & Sodal, Sigbjorn, 2005. "Smooth pasting as rate of return equalization," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 200-206, November.
  12. Chang, Fwu-Ranq, 2005. "On the elasticities of harvesting rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 469-485, March.
  13. Saphores, Jean-Daniel, 2003. "Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 509-529, December.
  14. Dayanik, Savas & Karatzas, Ioannis, 2003. "On the optimal stopping problem for one-dimensional diffusions," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 173-212, October.
  15. Dixit, Avinash & Pindyck, Robert S & Sodal, Sigbjorn, 1999. "A Markup Interpretation of Optimal Investment Rules," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(455), pages 179-89, April.
  16. Spence, Michael, 1976. "Product Selection, Fixed Costs, and Monopolistic Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 217-35, June.
  17. Newman, D.H., 2002. "Forestry's golden rule and the development of the optimal forest rotation literature," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 5-27.
  18. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C, 1996. "Investment Lags," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 610-22, June.
  19. Lancaster, Kelvin, 1975. "Socially Optimal Product Differentiation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 567-85, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alvarez, Luis H.R., 2011. "Optimal capital accumulation under price uncertainty and costly reversibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1769-1788, October.
  2. Sims, Charles & Finnoff, David, 2012. "The role of spatial scale in the timing of uncertain environmental policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 369-382.

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