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High growth and low consumption in East Asia: How to improve welfare while avoiding financial failures

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  • Feltenstein, Andrew
  • Rochon, Céline
  • Shamloo, Maral

Abstract

This paper analyzes certain policies that are typical of a number of rapidly growing East Asian countries in which a fixed exchange rate, combined with a surplus labor market, has made domestic assets relatively inexpensive, generating high rates of FDI as well as domestic capital formation. This "investment hunger" can lead to unanticipated declines in the returns to investment, and resulting financial insolvencies. Private consumption remains low and there are concerns that high savings rates cannot be sustained. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model and apply it to a stylized Asian economy, loosely based upon China. We calibrate a benchmark equilibrium, and carry out various counterfactual simulations to analyze alternative policies, in particular tax cuts and exchange rate revaluations, as instruments in increasing private consumption while avoiding bank failures.

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  • Feltenstein, Andrew & Rochon, Céline & Shamloo, Maral, 2010. "High growth and low consumption in East Asia: How to improve welfare while avoiding financial failures," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 25-36, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:91:y:2010:i:1:p:25-36
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    Cited by:

    1. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Regime switches in the Sino-American co-dependency: Growth and structural change in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-32.
    2. Andrew Feltenstein & Maral Shamloo, 2013. "Tax reform, the informal economy, and bank financing of capital formation," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(1), pages 1-28, February.

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