IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/csdana/v74y2014icp64-80.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A dynamic linear model with extended skew-normal for the initial distribution of the state parameter

Author

Listed:
  • Cabral, Celso Rômulo Barbosa
  • da-Silva, Cibele Queiroz
  • Migon, Helio S.

Abstract

We develop a Bayesian dynamic model for modeling and forecasting multivariate time series relaxing the assumption of normality for the initial distribution of the state space parameter, and replacing it by a more flexible class of distributions, which we call Generalized Skew-Normal (GSN) Distributions. We develop a version of the classic Kalman filter, again obtaining GSN predictive and filtering distributions. As we are supposing the random fluctuations covariances to be unknown, a Gibbs-type sampler algorithm is developed in order to perform Bayesian inference. We work with two simulation experiments with scenarios close to real problems in order to show the efficacy of our proposed model. Finally, we apply our technique to a real data set.

Suggested Citation

  • Cabral, Celso Rômulo Barbosa & da-Silva, Cibele Queiroz & Migon, Helio S., 2014. "A dynamic linear model with extended skew-normal for the initial distribution of the state parameter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 64-80.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:74:y:2014:i:c:p:64-80
    DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2013.12.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167947314000024
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.csda.2013.12.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reinaldo B. Arellano-Valle & Marc G. Genton, 2010. "Multivariate extended skew-t distributions and related families," Metron - International Journal of Statistics, Dipartimento di Statistica, Probabilità e Statistiche Applicate - University of Rome, vol. 0(3), pages 201-234.
    2. Petris, Giovanni, 2010. "An R Package for Dynamic Linear Models," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 36(i12).
    3. Naveau, Philippe & Genton, Marc G. & Shen, Xilin, 2005. "A skewed Kalman filter," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 382-400, June.
    4. Arellano-Valle, Reinaldo B. & Genton, Marc G., 2005. "On fundamental skew distributions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 93-116, September.
    5. Dethlefsen, Claus & Lundbye-Christensen, Søren, 2006. "Formulating State Space Models in R with Focus on Longitudinal Regression Models," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 16(i01).
    6. Nakajima, Jouchi & Omori, Yasuhiro, 2012. "Stochastic volatility model with leverage and asymmetrically heavy-tailed error using GH skew Student’s t-distribution," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3690-3704.
    7. Grzegorz Grabek & Bohdan Klos & Grzegorz Koloch, 2011. "Skew-normal shocks in the linear state space form DSGE model," NBP Working Papers 101, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    8. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178, Decembrie.
    9. Reinaldo B. Arellano‐Valle & Adelchi Azzalini, 2006. "On the Unification of Families of Skew‐normal Distributions," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 33(3), pages 561-574, September.
    10. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    11. Omori, Yasuhiro & Chib, Siddhartha & Shephard, Neil & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2007. "Stochastic volatility with leverage: Fast and efficient likelihood inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 425-449, October.
    12. Adelchi Azzalini & Antonella Capitanio, 2003. "Distributions generated by perturbation of symmetry with emphasis on a multivariate skew t‐distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(2), pages 367-389, May.
    13. Adelchi Azzalini, 2005. "The Skew‐normal Distribution and Related Multivariate Families," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 32(2), pages 159-188, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Reinaldo B. Arellano-Valle & Javier E. Contreras-Reyes & Freddy O. López Quintero & Abel Valdebenito, 2019. "A skew-normal dynamic linear model and Bayesian forecasting," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 1055-1085, September.
    2. Gaygysyz Guljanov & Willi Mutschler & Mark Trede, 2022. "Pruned Skewed Kalman Filter and Smoother: With Application to the Yield Curve," CQE Working Papers 10122, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Manabu Asai & Michael McAleer & Jun Yu, 2006. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility," Microeconomics Working Papers 22058, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Roohollah Roozegar & Ahad Jamalizadeh & Mehdi Amiri & Tsung-I Lin, 2018. "On the exact distribution of order statistics arising from a doubly truncated bivariate elliptical distribution," METRON, Springer;Sapienza Università di Roma, vol. 76(1), pages 99-114, April.
    3. Siddhartha Chib & Yasuhiro Omori & Manabu Asai, 2007. "Multivariate stochastic volatility (Revised in May 2007, Handbook of Financial Time Series (Published in "Handbook of Financial Time Series" (eds T.G. Andersen, R.A. Davis, Jens-Peter Kreiss," CARF F-Series CARF-F-094, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    4. Lin, Tsung-I & McLachlan, Geoffrey J. & Lee, Sharon X., 2016. "Extending mixtures of factor models using the restricted multivariate skew-normal distribution," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 398-413.
    5. Ruiz-Cárdenas, Ramiro & Krainski, Elias T. & Rue, Håvard, 2012. "Direct fitting of dynamic models using integrated nested Laplace approximations — INLA," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1808-1828.
    6. Kahrari, F. & Rezaei, M. & Yousefzadeh, F. & Arellano-Valle, R.B., 2016. "On the multivariate skew-normal-Cauchy distribution," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 80-88.
    7. Iseringhausen, Martin, 2020. "The time-varying asymmetry of exchange rate returns: A stochastic volatility – stochastic skewness model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 275-292.
    8. Azzalini, Adelchi, 2022. "An overview on the progeny of the skew-normal family— A personal perspective," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    9. Kim, Hyoung-Moon & Ryu, Duchwan & Mallick, Bani K. & Genton, Marc G., 2014. "Mixtures of skewed Kalman filters," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 228-251.
    10. Cabral, Celso Rômulo Barbosa & Lachos, Víctor Hugo & Prates, Marcos O., 2012. "Multivariate mixture modeling using skew-normal independent distributions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 126-142, January.
    11. Jamalizadeh, A. & Balakrishnan, N., 2009. "Prediction in a trivariate normal distribution via a linear combination of order statistics," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(21), pages 2289-2296, November.
    12. Lin, Tsung I. & Ho, Hsiu J. & Chen, Chiang L., 2009. "Analysis of multivariate skew normal models with incomplete data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(10), pages 2337-2351, November.
    13. Takahashi, Makoto & Watanabe, Toshiaki & Omori, Yasuhiro, 2016. "Volatility and quantile forecasts by realized stochastic volatility models with generalized hyperbolic distribution," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 437-457.
    14. Jamalizadeh, A. & Balakrishnan, N., 2010. "Distributions of order statistics and linear combinations of order statistics from an elliptical distribution as mixtures of unified skew-elliptical distributions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(6), pages 1412-1427, July.
    15. Ishihara, Tsunehiro & Omori, Yasuhiro, 2012. "Efficient Bayesian estimation of a multivariate stochastic volatility model with cross leverage and heavy-tailed errors," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3674-3689.
    16. Lee, Sharon X. & McLachlan, Geoffrey J., 2022. "An overview of skew distributions in model-based clustering," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    17. Iseringhausen, Martin, 2024. "A time-varying skewness model for Growth-at-Risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 229-246.
    18. Zinoviy Landsman & Udi Makov & Tomer Shushi, 2017. "Extended Generalized Skew-Elliptical Distributions and their Moments," Sankhya A: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 79(1), pages 76-100, February.
    19. Sharon Lee & Geoffrey McLachlan, 2013. "On mixtures of skew normal and skew $$t$$ -distributions," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 7(3), pages 241-266, September.
    20. Boris Beranger & Simone A. Padoan & Scott A. Sisson, 2017. "Models for Extremal Dependence Derived from Skew-symmetric Families," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 44(1), pages 21-45, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:74:y:2014:i:c:p:64-80. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/csda .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.