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Non-linear time series clustering based on non-parametric forecast densities

Author

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  • Vilar, J.A.
  • Alonso, A.M.
  • Vilar, J.M.

Abstract

The problem of clustering time series is studied for a general class of non-parametric autoregressive models. The dissimilarity between two time series is based on comparing their full forecast densities at a given horizon. In particular, two functional distances are considered: L1 and L2. As the forecast densities are unknown, they are approximated using a bootstrap procedure that mimics the underlying generating processes without assuming any parametric model for the true autoregressive structure of the series. The estimated forecast densities are then used to construct the dissimilarity matrix and hence to perform clustering. Asymptotic properties of the proposed method are provided and an extensive simulation study is carried out. The results show the good behavior of the procedure for a wide variety of nonlinear autoregressive models and its robustness to non-Gaussian innovations. Finally, the proposed methodology is applied to a real dataset involving economic time series.

Suggested Citation

  • Vilar, J.A. & Alonso, A.M. & Vilar, J.M., 2010. "Non-linear time series clustering based on non-parametric forecast densities," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2850-2865, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:54:y:2010:i:11:p:2850-2865
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierpaolo D’Urso & Livia Giovanni & Riccardo Massari & Dario Lallo, 2013. "Noise fuzzy clustering of time series by autoregressive metric," METRON, Springer;Sapienza Università di Roma, vol. 71(3), pages 217-243, November.
    2. B. Lafuente-Rego & P. D’Urso & J. A. Vilar, 2020. "Robust fuzzy clustering based on quantile autocovariances," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 2393-2448, December.
    3. Ozan Cinar & Ozlem Ilk & Cem Iyigun, 2018. "Clustering of short time-course gene expression data with dissimilar replicates," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 263(1), pages 405-428, April.
    4. Liu, Shen & Maharaj, Elizabeth Ann, 2013. "A hypothesis test using bias-adjusted AR estimators for classifying time series in small samples," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 32-49.
    5. Beibei Zhang & Rong Chen, 2018. "Nonlinear Time Series Clustering Based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov 2D Statistic," Journal of Classification, Springer;The Classification Society, vol. 35(3), pages 394-421, October.
    6. Montero, Pablo & Vilar, José A., 2014. "TSclust: An R Package for Time Series Clustering," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 62(i01).
    7. Sonia Díaz & José Vilar, 2010. "Comparing Several Parametric and Nonparametric Approaches to Time Series Clustering: A Simulation Study," Journal of Classification, Springer;The Classification Society, vol. 27(3), pages 333-362, November.
    8. Giovanni De Luca & Paola Zuccolotto, 2011. "A tail dependence-based dissimilarity measure for financial time series clustering," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 5(4), pages 323-340, December.
    9. De Luca Giovanni & Zuccolotto Paola, 2017. "A double clustering algorithm for financial time series based on extreme events," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 34(1-2), pages 1-12, June.
    10. Liu, Shen & Maharaj, Elizabeth Ann & Inder, Brett, 2014. "Polarization of forecast densities: A new approach to time series classification," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 345-361.

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