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A bivariate frailty model for events with a permanent survivor fraction and non-monotonic hazards; with an application to age at first maternity

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  • Congdon, Peter
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    Abstract

    For certain life cycle events a non-susceptible fraction of subjects will never undergo the event. In demographic applications, examples are provided by marriage and age at first maternity. A model for survival data allowing a permanent survival fraction, non-monotonic failure rates and unobserved frailty is considered here. Regressions are used to explain both the failure time and permanent survival mechanisms and additive correlated errors are included in the general linear models defining these regressions. AÂ hierarchical Bayesian approach is adopted with likelihood conditional on the random frailty effects and a second stage prior defining the bivariate density of those effects. The gain in model fit, and potential effects on inference, from adding frailty is demonstrated in a case study application to age at first maternity in Germany.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.

    Volume (Year): 52 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 9 (May)
    Pages: 4346-4356

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:52:y:2008:i:9:p:4346-4356

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/csda

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    1. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. Van Den Berg, 2007. "The unobserved heterogeneity distribution in duration analysis," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 94(1), pages 87-99.
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    7. Siv Gustafsson, 2001. "Optimal age at motherhood. Theoretical and empirical considerations on postponement of maternity in Europe," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247.
    8. James Berger & Elías Moreno & Luis Pericchi & M. Bayarri & José Bernardo & Juan Cano & Julián Horra & Jacinto Martín & David Ríos-Insúa & Bruno Betrò & A. Dasgupta & Paul Gustafson & Larry Wass, 1994. "An overview of robust Bayesian analysis," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 5-124, June.
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