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Identification-robust simulation-based inference in joint discrete/continuous models for energy markets

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  • Bolduc, Denis
  • Khalaf, Lynda
  • Moyneur, Érick

Abstract

In the analysis of energy use models, a common problem consists in correcting for endogenous discrete-choice variables. Indeed, energy demand equations often include endogenous dummies which reflect the underlying discrete-choice for e.g. energy equipment. The latter lead to discrete/continuous (D/C) statistical models where the discrete and continuous components are statistically dependent, so weak-identification problems may occur which stem from the "quality" of the first stage instrumental model. These problems are studied in the context of energy demand analysis. A wide mixed-logit-based class of models is considered which allow for dependent choices, heteroskedasticity and multi-dimensionality. The severity of weak-identification problems and relevance for empirical practice are documented, even with very large data sets. Tractable and reliable (in the sense of type I error control) solutions are proposed which combine generalized Anderson-Rubin (GAR) procedures and maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) methods for models commonly used in practice. Results are illustrated via Monte-Carlo examples and an empirical study on electricity demand.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.

Volume (Year): 52 (2008)
Issue (Month): 6 (February)
Pages: 3148-3161

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Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:52:y:2008:i:6:p:3148-3161

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Cited by:
  1. Bijwaard, Govert E. & Franses, Philip Hans, 2009. "The effect of rounding on payment efficiency," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 1449-1461, February.
  2. Jean-Marie Dufour & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2009. "Structural Inflation Models with Real Wage Rigidities: The Case of Canada," Working Papers 09-21, Bank of Canada.
  3. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2010. "On the precision of Calvo parameter estimates in structural NKPC models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1582-1595, September.
  4. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2010. "Estimation uncertainty in structural inflation models with real wage rigidities," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2554-2561, November.

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