The global recession and China's stimulus package: A general equilibrium assessment of country level impacts
AbstractA dynamic computable general equilibrium model is developed to assess the impact of the recent global recession and the Chinese government's stimulus package on China's economic growth. By designing two scenarios – one with and one without the stimulus package – the model results show that GDP growth rate in 2009 could have fallen to 2.9% without the stimulus package, mainly as a result of the sharp decline in exports of manufactured goods. Under the stimulus scenario, with the generated additional demand on investment goods, the Chinese economy grows 8–10% in 2009 and the succeeding years. The model also measures the overall gains of the stimulus package, and the cumulative GDP growth difference between the two scenarios for 2009–15 is about RMB76 trillion.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal China Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 23 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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Global financial crisis; China's stimulus package; General equilibrium modeling;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- O21 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy
- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
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