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Solving the problems of new product forecasting

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  • Kahn, Kenneth B.

Abstract

An important consideration in solving the problems of new product forecasting entails distinguishing new product forecasting from the process of forecasting existing products. Particular differences between the two can be identified across the dimensions of data, analytics, forecast, plan, and measurement. For example, new product forecasting features little to no data with which to begin the process, whereas data are available and accessible in forecasting existing products. The minimal data situation requires a qualitative approach that lays out assumptions to provide transparency; in contrast, quantitative techniques are predominantly used when forecasting existing products. Different assumptions help construct a range of new product forecast outcomes on which company contingencies can be planned versus a singular point forecast for an existing product. And the measure of forecast accuracy, which is a common metric in forecasting existing products, must give way to meaningfulness so that the new product forecast is actionable. Recognizing new product forecasting as a cross-functional, company-wide process helps resolve the problems of new product forecasting. While incapable of remedying all problems, a properly understood and organized new product forecasting effort can help the company better prepare, execute, and support a new product launch, affording a greater propensity to achieve new product success.

Suggested Citation

  • Kahn, Kenneth B., 2014. "Solving the problems of new product forecasting," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 607-615.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:bushor:v:57:y:2014:i:5:p:607-615
    DOI: 10.1016/j.bushor.2014.05.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alec Finney & Martin Joseph, 2011. "Getting Your Forecasting and Planning Fundamentals Right," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 20, pages 29-36, Winter.
    2. K. Rao & A. Vijayakumar & R. Sarker, 2006. "Foreword," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 19-20, March.
    3. Alec Finney & Martin Joseph & Hannah Kurth, 2011. "Getting Your Forecasting and Planning Fundamentals Right: A Case Study," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 21, pages 30-34, Spring.
    4. Mentzer, John T. & Bienstock, Carol C. & Kahn, Kenneth B., 1999. "Benchmarking sales forecasting management," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 48-56.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elalem, Yara Kayyali & Maier, Sebastian & Seifert, Ralf W., 2023. "A machine learning-based framework for forecasting sales of new products with short life cycles using deep neural networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1874-1894.

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