IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v87y2010i1p168-177.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Defining limits: Energy constrained economic growth

Author

Listed:
  • Nel, Willem P.
  • van Zyl, Gerhardus

Abstract

The historical and deductive merits for an explicit energy-based economic growth formulation are presented. Parameters in the formulation are successfully calibrated to empirical data and a range of forecasts is made for global economic growth potential to 2050, based on a plausible case of energy availability. The results demonstrate the vital importance of energy security and lead to the conclusion that the current socio-economic paradigm may not be sustainable.

Suggested Citation

  • Nel, Willem P. & van Zyl, Gerhardus, 2010. "Defining limits: Energy constrained economic growth," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 168-177, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:87:y:2010:i:1:p:168-177
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306-2619(09)00234-7
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bradley, Paul G, 1973. "Increasing Scarcity: The Case of Energy Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 119-125, May.
    2. Pezzey, John C.V. & Toman, Michael, 2002. "The Economics of Sustainability: A Review of Journal Articles," Discussion Papers 10683, Resources for the Future.
    3. Cleveland, Cutler J. & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Stern, David I., 2000. "Aggregation and the role of energy in the economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 301-317, February.
    4. Berndt, Ernst R & Wood, David O, 1979. "Engineering and Econometric Interpretations of Energy-Capital Complementarity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 342-354, June.
    5. Nel, Willem P. & Cooper, Christopher J., 2009. "Implications of fossil fuel constraints on economic growth and global warming," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 166-180, January.
    6. Norgaard, Richard B., 1992. "Sustainability and the economics of assuring assets for future generations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 832, The World Bank.
    7. Ayres, Robert U. & Turton, Hal & Casten, Tom, 2007. "Energy efficiency, sustainability and economic growth," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 634-648.
    8. J. Peter Neary, 2004. "Rationalizing the Penn World Table: True Multilateral Indices for International Comparisons of Real Income," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1411-1428, December.
    9. Scott, Maurice, 1993. "Explaining Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 421-425, May.
    10. Kaufmann, Robert K., 1994. "The relation between marginal product and price in US energy markets : Implications for climate change policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 145-158, April.
    11. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2007. "Energy consumption and GDP revisited: A panel analysis of developed and developing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1206-1223, November.
    12. Nel, Willem P. & Cooper, Christopher J., 2008. "A critical review of IEA's oil demand forecast for China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1096-1106, March.
    13. Leontief, Wassily, 1971. "Theoretical Assumptions and Nonobserved Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 1-7, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Zhao-Hua & Zeng, Hua-Lin & Wei, Yi-Ming & Zhang, Yi-Xiang, 2012. "Regional total factor energy efficiency: An empirical analysis of industrial sector in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 115-123.
    2. John P DeLong & Oskar Burger, 2015. "Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-12, June.
    3. John P DeLong & Oskar Burger & Marcus J Hamilton, 2010. "Current Demographics Suggest Future Energy Supplies Will Be Inadequate to Slow Human Population Growth," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(10), pages 1-8, October.
    4. Tengfei Huo & Hong Ren & Weiguang Cai & Wei Feng & Miaohan Tang & Nan Zhou, 2018. "The total-factor energy productivity growth of China’s construction industry: evidence from the regional level," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(3), pages 1593-1616, July.
    5. Ward, James D. & Mohr, Steve H. & Myers, Baden R. & Nel, Willem P., 2012. "High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 598-604.
    6. Forouzanfar, Mehdi & Doustmohammadi, A. & Hasanzadeh, Samira & Shakouri G, H., 2012. "Transport energy demand forecast using multi-level genetic programming," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 496-503.
    7. Maria-Floriana Popescu, 2015. "The Energy Issues: A Corpus-Based Analysis," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 18(56), pages 147-167, June,.
    8. Heun, Matthew Kuperus & Owen, Anne & Brockway, Paul E., 2018. "A physical supply-use table framework for energy analysis on the energy conversion chain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 1134-1162.
    9. Chang, Tzu-Pu & Hu, Jin-Li, 2010. "Total-factor energy productivity growth, technical progress, and efficiency change: An empirical study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(10), pages 3262-3270, October.
    10. Waheed Mobolaji Ashagidigbi & Bashirat Adenike Babatunde & Adebayo Isaiah Ogunniyi & Kehinde Oluseyi Olagunju & Abiodun Olusola Omotayo, 2020. "Estimation and Determinants of Multidimensional Energy Poverty among Households in Nigeria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-13, September.
    11. Marco Sakai & Paul E. Brockway & John R. Barrett & Peter G. Taylor, 2018. "Thermodynamic Efficiency Gains and their Role as a Key ‘Engine of Economic Growth’," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, December.
    12. Arora, Vipin & Cai, Yiyong, 2014. "U.S. natural gas exports and their global impacts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 95-103.
    13. Xie, Peijun & Jamaani, Fouad, 2022. "Does green innovation, energy productivity and environmental taxes limit carbon emissions in developed economies: Implications for sustainable development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 66-78.
    14. Owen, Anne & Brockway, Paul & Brand-Correa, Lina & Bunse, Lukas & Sakai, Marco & Barrett, John, 2017. "Energy consumption-based accounts: A comparison of results using different energy extension vectors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 464-473.
    15. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2010. "The causal dynamics between coal consumption and growth: Evidence from emerging market economies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1972-1977, June.
    16. Kostas Bithas & Panos Kalimeris & Eleni Koilakou, 2021. "Re‐estimating the energy intensity of growth with implications for sustainable development. The myth of the decoupling effect," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 441-452, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nel, Willem P. & Cooper, Christopher J., 2009. "Implications of fossil fuel constraints on economic growth and global warming," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 166-180, January.
    2. David I. Stern, 2010. "The Role of Energy in Economic Growth," CCEP Working Papers 0310, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Nel, Willem P. & Cooper, Christopher J., 2008. "A critical review of IEA's oil demand forecast for China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1096-1106, March.
    4. Huang, Bwo-Nung & Hwang, M.J. & Yang, C.W., 2008. "Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited: A dynamic panel data approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 41-54, August.
    5. Wadud, Zia & Dey, Himadri S. & Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor & Khan, Shahidul I., 2011. "Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7372-7380.
    6. Gasparatos, Alexandros & El-Haram, Mohamed & Horner, Malcolm, 2009. "The argument against a reductionist approach for measuring sustainable development performance and the need for methodological pluralism," Accounting forum, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 245-256.
    7. Ma, Hengyun & Oxley, Les & Gibson, John, 2010. "China's energy economy: A survey of the literature," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 105-132, June.
    8. Rye, Craig D. & Jackson, Tim, 2018. "A review of EROEI-dynamics energy-transition models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 260-272.
    9. Sorrell, Steve, 2009. "Jevons' Paradox revisited: The evidence for backfire from improved energy efficiency," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1456-1469, April.
    10. Gross, Christian, 2012. "Explaining the (non-) causality between energy and economic growth in the U.S.—A multivariate sectoral analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 489-499.
    11. Dergiades, Theologos & Martinopoulos, Georgios & Tsoulfidis, Lefteris, 2013. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Parametric and non-parametric causality testing for the case of Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 686-697.
    12. Caraiani, Chirața & Lungu, Camelia I. & Dascălu, Cornelia, 2015. "Energy consumption and GDP causality: A three-step analysis for emerging European countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 198-210.
    13. Jack Miller & Timothy J. Foxon & Steve Sorrell, 2016. "Exergy Accounting: A Quantitative Comparison of Methods and Implications for Energy-Economy Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-22, November.
    14. Kemp-Benedict, Eric, 2013. "Resource Return on Investment under Markup Pricing," MPRA Paper 49154, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Vaqar Ahmed & Muhammad Zeshan, 2014. "Decomposing Change in Energy Consumption of the Agricultural Sector in Pakistan," Agrarian South: Journal of Political Economy, Centre for Agrarian Research and Education for South, vol. 3(3), pages 369-402, December.
    16. Elena Ketteni & Theofanis Mamuneas & Panos Pashardes, 2013. "ICT and Energy Use: Patterns of Substitutability and Complementarity in Production," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 7(1), pages 63-86, June.
    17. Estrella Trincado & Antonio Sánchez-Bayón & José María Vindel, 2021. "The European Union Green Deal: Clean Energy Wellbeing Opportunities and the Risk of the Jevons Paradox," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-23, July.
    18. Kounetas, Konstantinos & Stergiou, Eirini, 2019. "Technology heterogeneity in European industries' energy efficiency performance. The role of climate, greenhouse gases, path dependence and energy mix," MPRA Paper 92314, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Ackah, Ishmael, 2015. "Accounting for the effect of exogenous non-Economic variables on natural gas demand in oil producing African countries," MPRA Paper 81553, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Ouedraogo, Nadia S., 2013. "Energy consumption and human development: Evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 28-41.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:87:y:2010:i:1:p:168-177. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.