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Bio-economic assessment of climate change impacts on managed grassland production

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Author Info

  • Finger, Robert
  • Lazzarotto, Patrick
  • Calanca, Pierluigi

Abstract

In order to analyze impacts of climate change on managed grassland systems and to project potential changes in farmers' management practices in response to altered climatic conditions, we develop a modeling approach that integrates a process-based grassland model into an economic model. This economic model describes farmers' decision making with respect to input use and accounts for production levels, production risks, fodder quality as determined by the grassland composition, and environmental protection. We apply the bio-economic model to an intensively managed grassland system with a geographic focus on the Swiss Plateau. Our results show an increase of future production risks in grassland production due to climate change. Projected changes in yield levels, grassland composition and optimal responses of risk-averse farmers are dependent on the assumptions concerning cross-compliance obligations, forage quality and particularly on the assumed effect of elevated CO2 concentrations: Grasslands yields will increase under future climatic conditions only if the benefits of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are taken into account. Without this potential benefit, climate change will lead to less intensive input use and lower grassland yields.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Agricultural Systems.

Volume (Year): 103 (2010)
Issue (Month): 9 (November)
Pages: 666-674

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Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:103:y:2010:i:9:p:666-674

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy

Related research

Keywords: Managed grassland production Climate change Adaptation Impact assessment Bio-economic modeling;

References

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  1. Just, Richard E. & Pope, Rulon D., 1978. "Stochastic specification of production functions and economic implications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 67-86, February.
  2. Salvatore Di Falco & Jean-Paul Chavas & Melinda Smale, 2007. "Farmer management of production risk on degraded lands: the role of wheat variety diversity in the Tigray region, Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 36(2), pages 147-156, 03.
  3. Salvatore Di Falco & Jean-Paul Chavas, 2006. "Crop genetic diversity, farm productivity and the management of environmental risk in rainfed agriculture," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 33(3), pages 289-314, September.
  4. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  5. Conway, A. G. & Killen, L., 1987. "A linear programming model of grassland management," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 51-71.
  6. Topp, Cairistiona F. E. & Doyle, Christopher J., 1996. "Simulating the impact of global warming on milk and forage production in Scotland: 1. The effects on dry-matter yield of grass and grass-white clover swards," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 52(2-3), pages 213-242.
  7. Berentsen, P. B. M. & Giesen, G. W. J., 1995. "An environmental-economic model at farm level to analyse institutional and technical change in dairy farming," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 153-175.
  8. Herrero, M. & Fawcett, R. H. & Dent, J. B., 1999. "Bio-economic evaluation of dairy farm management scenarios using integrated simulation and multiple-criteria models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 169-188, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Finger, Robert & Lehmann, Niklaus, 2011. "Do Direct Payments Influence Farmers' Hail Insurance Decisions?," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114355, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Simon Briner & Michael Hartmann & Robert Finger & Bernard Lehmann, 2012. "Greenhouse gas mitigation and offset options for suckler cow farms: an economic comparison for the Swiss case," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 337-355, April.
  3. Robert Finger & Niklaus Lehmann, 2012. "The influence of direct payments on farmers’ hail insurance decisions," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 343-354, 05.
  4. Niklaus Lehmann & Robert Finger & Tommy Klein & Pierluigi Calanca, 2013. "Sample Size Requirements for Assessing Statistical Moments of Simulated Crop Yield Distributions," Agriculture, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(2), pages 210-220, April.
  5. Briner, Simon & Finger, Robert, 2012. "Bio-economic modelling of decisions under yield and price risk for suckler cow farms," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122547, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  6. Finger, Robert, 2012. "Modeling the sensitivity of agricultural water use to price variability and climate change—An application to Swiss maize production," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 135-143.

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