IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v103y2010i9p647-655.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling spatio-temporal crop allocation patterns by a stochastic decision tree method, considering agronomic driving factors

Author

Listed:
  • Sorel, Luc
  • Viaud, Valérie
  • Durand, Patrick
  • Walter, Christian

Abstract

Evaluating the environmental impacts of agricultural practices increasingly involves the use of spatially distributed simulation models that account for crop allocations across fields as an input factor. Our objective was to develop a model for spatio-temporal allocation of crops to a field pattern that was able to account for agronomic and spatial driving factors including crop production objectives, spatial distribution of the crops around farmsteads, and preferential allocation of crops on soil waterlogging classes. We developed a model based on stochastic decision trees (SDTs) to integrate farm type and field characteristics (area, distance to farmstead, waterlogging, and current crop) in the spatio-temporal allocation process without prior expert knowledge, and we compared the model to a reference model based on first-order Markov chains or transition matrices. A case study comparing both models was performed in the Naizin catchment (Western France), where crop allocation to fields was known for the period 1993-2006. The SDTs built had a general structure similar to transition matrices. SDTs and transition matrices exhibited similar performances in predicting crop transitions in time and in allocating crops to the proper soil waterlogging class. However, SDTs proved to better reproduce the spatial distribution of crops around the farmsteads. SDTs provide an integrated way to analyze and simulate crop allocation processes within a single integrated framework. The ease of constructing decision trees suggests potential couplings of SDT to various landscape-scale ecological models requiring a detailed description of the land use mosaic as input data.

Suggested Citation

  • Sorel, Luc & Viaud, Valérie & Durand, Patrick & Walter, Christian, 2010. "Modeling spatio-temporal crop allocation patterns by a stochastic decision tree method, considering agronomic driving factors," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(9), pages 647-655, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:103:y:2010:i:9:p:647-655
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308-521X(10)00099-5
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. F Wu & C J Webster, 1998. "Simulation of Land Development through the Integration of Cellular Automata and Multicriteria Evaluation," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 25(1), pages 103-126, February.
    2. Sylvain Payraudeau & Hayo M.G. Van Der Werf & Francoise Vertes, 2006. "Evaluation of an operational method for the estimation of emissions of nitrogen compounds for a group of farms," International Journal of Agricultural Resources, Governance and Ecology, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2/3), pages 224-246.
    3. Heidenberger, Kurt, 1996. "Dynamic project selection and funding under risk: A decision tree based MILP approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 284-298, December.
    4. Thornton, P. K. & Jones, P. G., 1998. "A conceptual approach to dynamic agricultural land-use modelling," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 505-521, August.
    5. Bockstael, N. & Costanza, R. & Strand, I. & Boynton, W. & Bell, K. & Wainger, L., 1995. "Ecological economic modeling and valuation of ecosystems," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 143-159, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aurbacher, Joachim & Dabbert, Stephan, 2011. "Generating crop sequences in land-use models using maximum entropy and Markov chains," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(6), pages 470-479, July.
    2. Biarnès, Anne & Bailly, Jean-Stéphane & Mekki, Insaf & Ferchichi, Intissar, 2021. "Land use mosaics in Mediterranean rainfed agricultural areas as an indicator of collective crop successions: Insights from a land use time series study conducted in Cap Bon, Tunisia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    3. Bourhis, Yoann & Poggi, Sylvain & Mammeri, Youcef & Le Cointe, Ronan & Cortesero, Anne-Marie & Parisey, Nicolas, 2017. "Foraging as the landscape grip for population dynamics—A mechanistic model applied to crop protection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 354(C), pages 26-36.
    4. Mekki, Insaf & Bailly, Jean Stéphane & Jacob, Frédéric & Chebbi, Hichem & Ajmi, Tarek & Blanca, Yves & Zairi, Abdelaziz & Biarnès, Anne, 2018. "Impact of farmland fragmentation on rainfed crop allocation in Mediterranean landscapes: A case study of the Lebna watershed in Cap Bon, Tunisia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 772-783.
    5. Moreau, Pierre & Ruiz, Laurent & Vertès, Françoise & Baratte, Christine & Delaby, Luc & Faverdin, Philippe & Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal & Piquemal, Benoit & Ramat, Eric & Salmon-Monviola, Jordy & Durand, , 2013. "CASIMOD’N: An agro-hydrological distributed model of catchment-scale nitrogen dynamics integrating farming system decisions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 41-51.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Taylor, Michael H. & Rollins, Kimberly, 2012. "Using Ecological Models to Coordinate Valuation of Ecological Change on Western Rangelands for ex post Application to Policy Analysis," Western Economics Forum, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9.
    2. Nunes, P.A.L.D. & Nijkamp, P., 2011. "Biodiversity: Economic perspectives," Serie Research Memoranda 0002, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    3. Basso, Antonella & Peccati, Lorenzo A., 2001. "Optimal resource allocation with minimum activation levels and fixed costs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 131(3), pages 536-549, June.
    4. Hui Li & Robert P. Berrens & Alok K. Bohara & Hank C. Jenkins-Smith & Carol L. Silva & David L. Weimer, 2005. "Exploring the Beta Model Using Proportional Budget Information in a Contingent Valuation Study," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 17(8), pages 1-9.
    5. Mignoli, Guido & Nijkamp, Peter, 2001. "Values and effects of local identity preservation. A taxonomic approach," Serie Research Memoranda 0023, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    6. Borisova, Tatiana & Shortle, James S. & Horan, Richard D. & Abler, David G., 2003. "The Value Of Ecological And Economic Information In Water Quality Management," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22180, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Veronique Beckers & Jeroen Beckers & Matthias Vanmaercke & Etienne Van Hecke & Anton Van Rompaey & Nicolas Dendoncker, 2018. "Modelling Farm Growth and Its Impact on Agricultural Land Use: A Country Scale Application of an Agent-Based Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-19, September.
    8. Di Traglia, Mario & Attorre, Fabio & Francesconi, Fabio & Valenti, Roberto & Vitale, Marcello, 2011. "Is cellular automata algorithm able to predict the future dynamical shifts of tree species in Italy under climate change scenarios? A methodological approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(4), pages 925-934.
    9. Han, Yu & Jia, Haifeng, 2017. "Simulating the spatial dynamics of urban growth with an integrated modeling approach: A case study of Foshan, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 107-116.
    10. Jing Yang & Feng Shi & Yizhong Sun & Jie Zhu, 2019. "A Cellular Automata Model Constrained by Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of the Urban Development Strategy for Simulating Land-use Change: A Case Study in Nanjing City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-19, July.
    11. Liu, Dongya & Zheng, Xinqi & Zhang, Chunxiao & Wang, Hongbin, 2017. "A new temporal–spatial dynamics method of simulating land-use change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 350(C), pages 1-10.
    12. He, Jie & Richard, Patrick, 2010. "Environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 in Canada," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(5), pages 1083-1093, March.
    13. Gowdy, John M. & Ferreri Carbonell, Ada, 1999. "Toward consilience between biology and economics: the contribution of Ecological Economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 337-348, June.
    14. Deal, Brian & Schunk, Daniel, 2004. "Spatial dynamic modeling and urban land use transformation: a simulation approach to assessing the costs of urban sprawl," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 79-95, November.
    15. Yan Liu & Yongjiu Feng, 2016. "Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-16, October.
    16. Joanna Burger & Michael Gochfeld & Karen Pletnikoff & Ronald Snigaroff & Daniel Snigaroff & Tim Stamm, 2008. "Ecocultural Attributes: Evaluating Ecological Degradation in Terms of Ecological Goods and Services Versus Subsistence and Tribal Values," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1261-1272, October.
    17. Wu, JunJie & Cho, Seong-Hoon, 2007. "The effect of local land use regulations on urban development in the Western United States," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 69-86, January.
    18. Xiaoli Hu & Xin Li & Ling Lu, 2018. "Modeling the Land Use Change in an Arid Oasis Constrained by Water Resources and Environmental Policy Change Using Cellular Automata Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-14, August.
    19. repec:asg:wpaper:1038 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Li-Pun, Hugo & Thornton, P & Jabbar, Mohammad A., 1998. "Ecoregional Research at ILRI: Background," Research Reports 182900, International Livestock Research Institute.
    21. Grafeld, Shanna & Oleson, Kirsten & Barnes, Michele & Peng, Marcus & Chan, Catherine & Weijerman, Mariska, 2016. "Divers' willingness to pay for improved coral reef conditions in Guam: An untapped source of funding for management and conservation?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 202-213.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:103:y:2010:i:9:p:647-655. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.