Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Evaluating alternative price expectation models for multiproduct supply analysis

Contents:

Author Info

  • McIntosh, Christopher S.
  • Shumway, C. Richard

Abstract

Neoclassical economic theory provides an important conceptual framework for the analysis of agricultural production. Theory provides little guidance, however, in the actual specification of empirical models. This paper applies an integrated approach for choosing between price expectation mechanisms in a multiple-equation model when the alternatives are non-nested. Nine alternative specifications of market price and policy information are developed. Price forecasting accuracy, non-nested tests of hypotheses, and out-of-sample predictive accuracy are examined for agricultural production in Iowa. The results call into question the reliability of using forecasting accuracy as the sole guide to selecting a price expectation proxy.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6T3V-45GNJ0B-B/2/135303f77b499407906ea38ce9c6f882
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell in its journal Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 10 (1994)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 1-11

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:agecon:v:10:y:1994:i:1:p:1-11

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/loi/agec

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Orazem, Peter & Miranowski, John, 1986. "An Indirect Test for the Specification of Expectation Regimes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 603-09, November.
  2. Gallagher, Paul W., 1978. "The Effectiveness of Price Support Policy--Some Evidence for U.S. Corn Acreage Response," Staff General Research Papers 12561, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  3. Shideed, Kamil H. & White, Fred C., 1989. "Alternative Forms Of Price Expectations In Supply Analysis For U.S. Corn And Soybean Acreages," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(02), December.
  4. Duffy, Patricia A. & Richardson, James W. & Wohlgenant, Michael K., 1987. "Regional Cotton Acreage Response," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(01), July.
  5. Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-67, July.
  6. Gallagher, Paul, 1978. "The Effectiveness Of Price Support Policy-Some Evidence For U.S. Corn Acreage Response," Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, issue 4.
  7. Shonkwiler, J S & Maddala, G S, 1985. "Modeling Expectations of Bounded Prices: An Application to the Market for Corn," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 697-702, November.
  8. Dale W. Jorgenson & Lawrence J. Lau, 1975. "The Structure of Consumer Preferences," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 4, number 1, pages 49-101 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Pope, Rulon D. & Kao, Robert S., 1983. "An Analysis Of The Role Of Futures Prices, Cash Prices And Government Programs In Acreage Response," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 8(01), July.
  10. Bessler, David A & Chamberlain, Peter J, 1987. "On Bayesian composite forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 43-48.
  11. Huffman, Wallace & Evenson, Robert E., 1989. "Supply and Demand Functions for Multiproduct U.S. Cash Grain Farms: Biases Caused by Research and Other Policies," Staff General Research Papers 10985, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  12. Pope, Rulon D. & Hallam, Arne, 1988. "Testing separability of production using flexible functional form profit functions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 265-270.
  13. Silberberg, Eugene, 1974. "A revision of comparative statics methodology in economics, or, how to do comparative statics on the back of an envelope," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 159-172, February.
  14. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1983. "Testing the specification of multivariate models in the presence of alternative hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 301-313, December.
  15. Askari, Hossein & Cummings, John Thomas, 1977. "Estimating Agricultural Supply Response with the Nerlove Model: A Survey," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(2), pages 257-92, June.
  16. Gallagher, Paul W., 1978. "The Effectiveness Of Price Support Policy--Some Evidence For U.S. Corn Acreage Response," Staff Papers 14140, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
  17. Houck, James P., 1976. "Analyzing the Impact of Government Programs on Crop Acreage," Technical Bulletins 158119, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Winter-Nelson, Alex, 1996. "Expectations, supply response, and marketing boards: An example from Kenya," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 21-31, April.
  2. Stavriotis, Paul A. & Houston, Jack E. & McIntosh, Christopher S. & Turner, Steven C., 1998. "Leading Indicators For Regional Cotton Response: Structural And Time Series Modeling Results," Faculty Series 16717, University of Georgia, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
  3. Paudel, Krishna P. & McIntosh, Christopher S., 1998. "Numeraire Choice In Agricultural Supply Analysis," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20962, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  4. Parrott, Scott D. & McIntosh, Christopher S., 1996. "Nonconstant Price Expectations And Acreage Response: The Case Of Cotton Production In Georgia," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(01), July.
  5. Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2003. ""Irrational" Planting Behavior As Rational Expectations Of Government Support," 2003 Annual Meeting, February 1-5, 2003, Mobile, Alabama 35237, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agecon:v:10:y:1994:i:1:p:1-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.