Carbon Emissions Caps and the Impact of a Radical Change in Nuclear Electricity Costs
AbstractIn this study we analyze the impact of a radical change in nuclear electricity costs on the optimal electricity generation technology mix (EGTM) and constrain the value of information (VOI) on future nuclear costs. We consider three nuclear cost events and four carbon emissions caps. We develop a two-stage framework for energy-economic model MARKAL to eliminate foresight of future nuclear cost movements. We examine how the EGTM responds to these movements under alternative caps and analyze how these movements affect the cost of each cap. We define the expected savings from perfect foresight (ESPF), an upper bound on the VOI. We found that with current technologies, carbon mitigation that does not rely heavily on nuclear electricity is economically insensible. The Strong Cap is extremely costly because it restricts flexibility to respond to cost signals in choosing among technologies. The ESPF is highest under the Medium Cap by a substantial margin.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Econjournals in its journal International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy.
Volume (Year): 3 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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Web page: http://www.econjournals.com
MARKAL; nuclear electricity; value of information; foresight;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
- H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
- O13 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
- O33 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
- Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
- Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General
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