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Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model

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Author Info

  • Gholam Hossein Hasantash

    (Faculty Member, Institute for International Energy Studies (IIES))

  • Hamidreza Mostafaei

    (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Shahid Rajaei Teacher Training University, Tehran)

  • Shaghayegh Kordnoori

    (MSc of Statistics & Statistics Expert of Research Institute for ICT,Tehran, Iran.)

Abstract

Grey theory is about systematic analysis of limited information. The Grey-Markov model can improve the accuracy of forecast range in the random fluctuating data sequence. In this paper, we employed this model in energy system. The average errors of Energy Information Administrations predictions for world oil price and domestic crude oil production from 1982 to 2007 and from 1985 to 2008 respectively were used as two forecasted examples. We showed that the proposed Grey-Markov model can improve the forecast accuracy of original Grey forecast model.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Econjournals in its journal International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues.

Volume (Year): 2 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 312-319

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Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2012-03-9

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Related research

Keywords: Grey theory; Grey Markov model; EIA; Oil;

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  1. Auffhammer, Maximilian, 2007. "The rationality of EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 102-121, May.
  2. Kumar, Ujjwal & Jain, V.K., 2010. "Time series models (Grey-Markov, Grey Model with rolling mechanism and singular spectrum analysis) to forecast energy consumption in India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1709-1716.
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