Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model
AbstractGrey theory is about systematic analysis of limited information. The Grey-Markov model can improve the accuracy of forecast range in the random fluctuating data sequence. In this paper, we employed this model in energy system. The average errors of Energy Information Administrations predictions for world oil price and domestic crude oil production from 1982 to 2007 and from 1985 to 2008 respectively were used as two forecasted examples. We showed that the proposed Grey-Markov model can improve the forecast accuracy of original Grey forecast model.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Econjournals in its journal International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues.
Volume (Year): 2 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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Web page: http://www.econjournals.com
Grey theory; Grey Markov model; EIA; Oil;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Auffhammer, Maximilian, 2005.
"The rationality of EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss,"
CUDARE Working Paper Series, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy
1009, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
- Auffhammer, Maximilian, 2007. "The rationality of EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 102-121, May.
- Kumar, Ujjwal & Jain, V.K., 2010. "Time series models (Grey-Markov, Grey Model with rolling mechanism and singular spectrum analysis) to forecast energy consumption in India," Energy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1709-1716.
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