Oil and S&P 500 Markets: Evidence from the Nonlinear Model
AbstractThis study begins by using a MTAR model to explore the asymmetric effects of error corrections between oil prices in the U.S.A and S&P 500 prices under different regimes. After confirming the lead/lag relationship between the S&P 500 and oil prices, we employ a STECM to analyze the short-run return dynamics when there are deviations from the equilibrium between the two variables. Our empirical evidence shows that an asymmetric co-integration relationship exists between the S&P 500 and oil prices. In addition, the results of the Granger causality test based on the TECM document the unidirectional relationship from the oil price to the S&P 500 price. Moreover, the short-run adjustments of the mean reversion to equilibrium follow the LSTECM. The contribution of this study might be in that the LSTECM-GARCH model is well suited to describing the short-run return dynamics of the disequilibrium between the oil prices and S&P 500 prices in the U.S.A.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Econjournals in its journal International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues.
Volume (Year): 2 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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Threshold Co-integration Test; Threshold Error-Correction Model; Stock Market; Oil Market; STECM-GARCH Model;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
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