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Testing for Regime Switching: A Comment

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  • Andrew V. Carter
  • Douglas G. Steigerwald

Abstract

In Cho and White (2007) "Testing for Regime Switching" the authors obtain the asymptotic null distribution of a quasi-likelihood ratio (QLR) statistic. The statistic is designed to test the null hypothesis of one regime against the alternative of Markov switching between two regimes. Likelihood ratio statistics are used because the test involves nuisance parameters that are not identified under the null hypothesis, together with other nonstandard features. Cho and White focus on a quasi-likelihood, which ignores certain serial correlation properties but allows for a tractable factorization of the likelihood. While the majority of their paper focuses on asymptotic behavior under the null hypothesis, Theorem 1(b) states that the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) is consistent under the alternative hypothesis. Consistency of the QMLE requires that the expected quasi-log-likelihood attain a global maximum at the population parameter values. This requirement holds for some Markov regime-switching processes but, as we show below, not for an autoregressive process as analyzed in Cho and White.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 80 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 (07)
Pages: 1809-1812

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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:80:y:2012:i:4:p:1809-1812

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  1. Levine, David, 1983. "A remark on serial correlation in maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 337-342, December.
  2. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2004. "Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching," Working Papers 2003-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. Sean D. Campbell, 2002. "Specification Testing and Semiparametric Estimation of Regime Switching Models: An Examination of the US Short Term Interest Rate," Working Papers 2002-26, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  4. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543.
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Cited by:
  1. Steigerwald, Douglas & Carter, Andrew, 2011. "Markov Regime-Switching Tests: Asymptotic Critical Values," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt5rn986z6, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  2. Steigerwald, Douglas G & Bostwick, Valerie K, 2012. "Obtaining Critical Values for Test of Markov Regime Switching," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt3685g3qr, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  3. Candelon, Bertrand & Metiu, Norbert & Straetmans, Stefan, 2013. "Disentangling economic recessions and depressions," Discussion Papers 43/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

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