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Constructing Optimal Instruments by First-Stage Prediction Averaging

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  • Guido Kuersteiner
  • Ryo Okui

Abstract

This paper considers model averaging as a way to construct optimal instruments for the two-stage least squares (2SLS), limited information maximum likelihood (LIML), and Fuller estimators in the presence of many instruments. We propose averaging across least squares predictions of the endogenous variables obtained from many different choices of instruments and then use the average predicted value of the endogenous variables in the estimation stage. The weights for averaging are chosen to minimize the asymptotic mean squared error of the model averaging version of the 2SLS, LIML, or Fuller estimator. This can be done by solving a standard quadratic programming problem. Copyright 2010 The Econometric Society.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 78 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (03)
Pages: 697-718

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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:78:y:2010:i:2:p:697-718

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Cited by:
  1. Aman Ullah & Huansha Wang, 2013. "Parametric and Nonparametric Frequentist Model Selection and Model Averaging," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(2), pages 157-179, September.
  2. Kuersteiner, Guido M., 2012. "Kernel-weighted GMM estimators for linear time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(2), pages 399-421.
  3. Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2010. "Model averaging in economics," MPRA Paper 26047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Zhang, Xinyu & Wan, Alan T.K. & Zou, Guohua, 2013. "Model averaging by jackknife criterion in models with dependent data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 82-94.
  5. Xiaohong Chen & David T. Jacho-Chavez & Oliver Linton, 2012. "Averaging of moment condition estimators," CeMMAP working papers CWP26/12, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  6. Martins, Luis F. & Gabriel, Vasco J., 2014. "Linear instrumental variables model averaging estimation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 709-724.
  7. Xu Cheng & Zhipeng Liao, 2012. "Select the Valid and Relevant Moments: A One-Step Procedure for GMM with Many Moments," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-045, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.

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