Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Bayesian Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models

Contents:

Author Info

  • Susumu Imai
  • Neelam Jain
  • Andrew Ching

Abstract

We propose a new methodology for structural estimation of infinite horizon dynamic discrete choice models. We combine the dynamic programming (DP) solution algorithm with the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm into a single algorithm that solves the DP problem and estimates the parameters simultaneously. As a result, the computational burden of estimating a dynamic model becomes comparable to that of a static model. Another feature of our algorithm is that even though the number of grid points on the state variable is small per solution-estimation iteration, the number of effective grid points increases with the number of estimation iterations. This is how we help ease the "curse of dimensionality." We simulate and estimate several versions of a simple model of entry and exit to illustrate our methodology. We also prove that under standard conditions, the parameters converge in probability to the true posterior distribution, regardless of the starting values. Copyright 2009 The Econometric Society.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.3982/ECTA5658
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 77 (2009)
Issue (Month): 6 (November)
Pages: 1865-1899

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:77:y:2009:i:6:p:1865-1899

Contact details of provider:
Phone: 1 212 998 3820
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Email:
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/memb.asp?ref=0012-9682

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Imai, Susumu & Krishna, Kala, 2001. "Employment, Dynamic Deterrence and Crime," Working Papers 1-01-2, Pennsylvania State University, Department of Economics.
  2. HÄRDLE, Wolfgang, 1992. "Applied nonparametric methods," CORE Discussion Papers 1992003, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  3. Tülin Erdem & Michael P. Keane, 1996. "Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Capturing Dynamic Brand Choice Processes in Turbulent Consumer Goods Markets," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(1), pages 1-20.
  4. Geweke, John & Houser, Dan & Keane, Michael, 1999. "Simulation Based Inference for Dynamic Multinomial Choice Models," MPRA Paper 54279, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 1999. "Swapping the Nested Fixed-Point Algorithm: a Class of Estimators for Discrete Markov Decision Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 332, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. McCulloch, Robert & Rossi, Peter E., 1994. "An exact likelihood analysis of the multinomial probit model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 207-240.
  7. Houser, Daniel, 2003. "Bayesian analysis of a dynamic stochastic model of labor supply and saving," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 289-335, April.
  8. Härdle,Wolfgang, 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521429504.
  9. Susumu Imai & Michael P. Keane, 2004. "Intertemporal Labor Supply and Human Capital Accumulation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 601-641, 05.
  10. Hotz, V Joseph & Robert A. Miller & Seth Sanders & Jeffrey Smith, 1994. "A Simulation Estimator for Dynamic Models of Discrete Choice," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 265-89, April.
  11. Andriy Norets, 2009. "Inference in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models With Serially orrelated Unobserved State Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1665-1682, 09.
  12. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1996. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 409-431, August.
  13. Lancaster, Tony, 1997. "Exact Structural Inference in Optimal Job-Search Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(2), pages 165-79, April.
  14. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:3:p:409-31 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Oliver LINTON, . "Applied nonparametric methods," Statistic und Oekonometrie 9312, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:77:y:2009:i:6:p:1865-1899. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.