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Formal and Informal Risk Sharing in LDCs: Theory and Empirical Evidence

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Author Info
Pierre Dubois
Bruno Jullien
Thierry Magnac

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Abstract

We develop and estimate a model of dynamic interactions in which commitment is limited and contracts are incomplete to explain the patterns of income and consumption growth in village economies of less developed countries. Households can insure each other through both formal contracts and informal agreements, that is, self-enforcing agreements specifying voluntary transfers. This theoretical setting nests the case of complete markets and the case where only informal agreements are available. We derive a system of nonlinear equations for income and consumption growth. A key prediction of our model is that both variables are affected by lagged consumption as a consequence of the interplay of formal and informal contracting possibilities. In a semiparametric setting, we prove identification, derive testable restrictions, and estimate the model with the use of data from Pakistani villages. Empirical results are consistent with the economic arguments. Incentive constraints due to self-enforcement bind with positive probability and formal contracts are used to reduce this probability. Copyright Copyright 2008 by The Econometric Society.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2008.00857.x
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Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 76 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (07)
Pages: 679-725
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:76:y:2008:i:4:p:679-725

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  3. Behrman, Jere R. & Foster, Andrew D. & Rosenzweig, Mark R., 1997. "The dynamics of agricultural production and the calorie-income relationship: Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 187-207, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Kocherlakota, Narayana R, 1996. "Implications of Efficient Risk Sharing without Commitment," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 63(4), pages 595-609, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Gauthier, Celine & Poitevin, Michel & Gonzalez, Patrick, 1997. "Ex Ante Payments in Self-Enforcing Risk-Sharing Contracts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 106-144, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Pierre Dubois & Bruno Jullien & Thierry Magnac, 2007. "Formal and Informal Risk Sharing in LDCs: Theory and Empirical Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 2842, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jonathan P Thomas & Tim Worrall, 2007. "Limited Commitment Models of the Labour Market," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2007/11, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Pierre Dubois & Bruno Jullien & Thierry Magnac, 2007. "Formal and Informal Risk Sharing in LDCs: Theory and Empirical Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 2842, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Notten, Geranda & Neubourg, Chris de, 2007. "Managing risks: what Russian households do to smooth consumption?," MPRA Paper 4670, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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