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A Mechanism-Design Approach to Speculative Trade

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Author Info
Kfir Eliaz
Ran Spiegler

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Abstract

When two parties have different prior beliefs about some future event, they can realize gains through speculative trade. Can these gains be realized when the parties' prior beliefs are not common knowledge? We examine a simple example in which two parties having heterogeneous prior beliefs, independently drawn from some distribution, bet on what future action one of them will choose. We define a notion of "constrained interim-efficient" best and ask whether they can be implemented in Bayesian equilibrium by some mechanism. Our main result establishes that as the costs of unilaterally manipulating the bet's outcome become more symmetric across states, implementation becomes easier. In particular, when these costs are equal in both states, implementation is possible for any distribution. Copyright The Econometric Society 2007.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2007.00770.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 75 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (05)
Pages: 875-884
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:75:y:2007:i:3:p:875-884

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Allaz Blaise & Vila Jean-Luc, 1993. "Cournot Competition, Forward Markets and Efficiency," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-16, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kfir Eliaz & Ran Spiegler, 2004. "Contracting with Diversely Naïve Agents," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000530, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Milgrom, Paul & Stokey, Nancy, 1982. "Information, trade and common knowledge," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 17-27, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Dubey, Pradeep, 1982. "Price-Quantity Strategic Market Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 111-26, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Morris, Stephen, 1994. "Trade with Heterogeneous Prior Beliefs and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1327-47, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kfir Eliaz & Rani Spiegler, 2005. "Speculative Contracts," Levine's Bibliography 784828000000000628, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Myerson, Roger B. & Satterthwaite, Mark A., 1983. "Efficient mechanisms for bilateral trading," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 265-281, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Muhamet Yildiz, 2005. "Wishful Thinking in Strategic Environments," NajEcon Working Paper Reviews 666156000000000598, www.najecon.org. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marco Angrisani & Antonio Guarino & Steffen Huck & Nathan Larson, 2008. "No-Trade in the Laboratory," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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    • Marco Angrisani & Antonio Guarino & Steffen Huck & Nathan Larson, 2008. "No-Trade in the Laboratory," WEF Working Papers 0045, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London. [Downloadable!]
  2. Rajiv Sethi & Muhamet Yildiz, 2009. "Public Disagreement," Economics Working Papers 0089, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science. [Downloadable!]
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