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Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies

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Author Info
Antoine Billot
Itzhak Gilboa
Dov Samet
David Schmeidler

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Abstract

A decision maker is asked to express her beliefs by assigning probabilities to certain possible states. We focus on the relationship between her database and her beliefs. We show that if beliefs given a union of two databases are a convex combination of beliefs given each of the databases, the belief formation process follows a simple formula: beliefs are a similarity-weighted average of the beliefs induced by each past case. Copyright The Econometric Society 2005.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2005.00611.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 73 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 (07)
Pages: 1125-1136
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:73:y:2005:i:4:p:1125-1136

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Antoine Billot & Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 2004. "An Axiomatization of an Exponential Similarity Function," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000678, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Antoine Billot & Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 2004. "Axiomatization of an Exponential Similarity Function," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1485, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 2003. "Inductive Inference: An Axiomatic Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 1-26, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Itzhak Gilboa & Offer Lieberman & David Schmeidler, 2004. "Empirical Similarity," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000684, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. repec:bep:theadv:v:7:y:2007:i:1:p:1284-1284 is not listed on IDEAS
    Other versions:
  2. Jürgen Eichberger & Ani Guerdjikova, 2008. "Multiple Priors as Similarity Weighted Frequencies," Working Papers 0470, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2008. [Downloadable!]
  3. Itzhak Gilboa & Offer Lieberman & David Schmeidler, 2007. "On the Definition of Objective Probabilities by Empirical Similarity," Levine's Bibliography 843644000000000363, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Eichberger, Jurgen & Guerdjikova, Ani, 2007. "Multiple Priors as Similarity Weighted Frequencies," Working Papers 07-03, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Itzhak Gilboa, 2009. "Questions in Decision Theory," Levine's Working Paper Archive 814577000000000335, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jakub Steiner & Colin Stewart, 2006. "Contagion through Learning," ESE Discussion Papers 151, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh, revised 10 Aug 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Eichberger, Jürgen & Guerdjikova, Ani, 2008. "Multiple Priors as Similarity Weighted Frequencies," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 08-07, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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