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Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies

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  • Antoine Billot
  • Itzhak Gilboa
  • Dov Samet
  • David Schmeidler

Abstract

A decision maker is asked to express her beliefs by assigning probabilities to certain possible states. We focus on the relationship between her database and her beliefs. We show that if beliefs given a union of two databases are a convex combination of beliefs given each of the databases, the belief formation process follows a simple formula: beliefs are a similarity-weighted average of the beliefs induced by each past case. Copyright The Econometric Society 2005.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2005.00611.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 73 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 (07)
Pages: 1125-1136

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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:73:y:2005:i:4:p:1125-1136

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  1. Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 2001. "Inductive Inference: An Axiomatic Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1339, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Antoine Billot & Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 2004. "An Axiomatization of an Exponential Similarity Function," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000678, UCLA Department of Economics.
  3. Itzhak Gilboa & Offer Lieberman & David Schmeidler, 2004. "Empirical Similarity," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000684, UCLA Department of Economics.
  4. Billot, Antoine & Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 2008. "Axiomatization of an exponential similarity function," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 107-115, March.
  5. F J Anscombe & R J Aumann, 2000. "A Definition of Subjective Probability," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7591, David K. Levine.
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