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Information Aggregation in an Experimental Market

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Author Info
Forsythe, Robert
Lundholm, Russell
Abstract

In this study, the authors report the results from laboratory asset markets designed to test the rational expectations hypothesis that markets aggregate and transmit the information of differentially informed traders. After documenting evidence in favor of the rational expectations model, they examine which features of their environment are necessary or sufficient to achieve an rational expectations equilibrium. The authors find that trading experience and common knowledge of dividends are jointly sufficient to achieve a rational expectations equilibrium, but that neither is a sufficient condition by itself. They also present some stylized facts about the convergence process leading to a rational expectations equilibrium. Copyright 1990 by The Econometric Society.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 58 (1990)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 309-47
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:58:y:1990:i:2:p:309-47

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  1. Jason Shachat & Anthony Westerling, 2004. "Information Aggregation in a Catastrophe Futures Markets," Experimental 0403002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Andrew Lo & Nicholas Chan & Blake LeBaron & Tomaso Poggio, 1999. "Information Dissemination and Aggregation in Asset Markets with Simple Intelligent Traders," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 653, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Martin Barner & Francesco Feri & Charles R. Plott, 2005. "On the microstructure of price determination and information aggregation with sequential and asymmetric information arrival in an experimental asset market," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 73-107, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Jack Ochs & Li Qi, 2006. "Information Use and Transference," Working Papers 236, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2006. [Downloadable!]
  5. Noeth, Markus & Camerer, Colin F. & Plott, Charles R. & Webber, Martin, 1999. "Information Aggregation in Experimental Asset Markets: Traps and Misaligned Beliefs," Working Papers 1060, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  6. Thomas A. Rietz, 1991. "Arbitrage," Discussion Papers 958, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sander, Harald & Kleimeier, Stefanie, 2006. "Interest Rate Pass-Through In the Common Monetary Area of the SACU Countries," Research Memoranda 023, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Jens Grossklags & Carsten Schmidt, 2002. "Artificial Software Agents on Thin Double Auction Markets - A Human Trader Experiment," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-45, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group. [Downloadable!]
  9. Carsten Schmidt & Axel Werwatz, 2002. "How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? The Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-09, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Plott, Charles R. & Chen, Kay-Yut, 2002. "Information Aggregation Mechanisms: Concept, Design and Implementation for a Sales Forecasting Problem," Working Papers 1131, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  11. Cason, Timothy N. & Plott, Charles R., 2004. "Forced information disclosure and the fallacy of transparency in markets," Working Papers 1202, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Guarnaschelli, Serena & Kwasnica, Anthony M. & Plott, Charles R., 2002. "Information Aggregation in Double Auctions: Rational Expectations and the Winner's Curse," Working Papers 1136, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  13. Barner, Martin & Feri, Francesco & Plott, Charles, 2004. "On the Microstructure of Price Determination and Information Aggregation with Sequential and Asymmetric Information Arrival in an Experimental Asset Market," Working Papers 1204, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  14. Maurice Doyon & Lota Dabio Tamini & Virginie Simard & Kent Messer & Harry M. Kaiser, 2006. "L’économie expérimentale pour l’analyse de modifications au système centralisé de vente du quota laitier au Québec," CIRANO Working Papers 2006s-23, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  15. Bruggen, G.H. van & Spann, M. & Lilien, G.L. & Skiera, B., 2006. "Institutional Forecasting: The Performance of Thin Virtual Stock Markets," Research Paper ERS-2006-028-MKT Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  16. Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church & Ping Zhang, 1999. "The effect of forecast bias on market behavior: evidence from experimental asset markets," Working Paper 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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