Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude
AbstractAnalyses of public policy regularly express certitude about the consequences of alternative policy choices. Yet policy predictions often are fragile, with conclusions resting on critical unsupported assumptions or leaps of logic. Then the certitude of policy analysis is not credible. I develop a typology of incredible analytical practices and gives illustrative cases. I call these practices conventional certitude, dueling certitudes, conflating science and advocacy, wishful extrapolation, illogical certitude, and media overreach.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.
Volume (Year): 121 (2011)
Issue (Month): 554 (08)
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Other versions of this item:
- Charles F. Manski, 2010. "Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude," NBER Working Papers 16207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles Manski, 2011. "Policy analysis with incredible certitude," CeMMAP working papers CWP04/11, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
- H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
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- Hashem M. Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2011.
"Beyond the DSGE Straitjacket,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
3447, CESifo Group Munich.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron P., 2011. "Beyond the DSGE Straitjacket," IZA Discussion Papers 5661, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Pesaran, M. H. & Smith, R. P., 2011. "Beyond the DSGE straightjacket," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1138, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Hunt Allcott, 2012. "Site Selection Bias in Program Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 18373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles F. Manski, 2014. "Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics," NBER Working Papers 20098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Muller, Sean, 2014. "Randomised trials for policy: a review of the external validity of treatment effects," SALDRU Working Papers 127, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
- Whittington, Dale & Jeuland, Marc & Barker, Kate & Yuen, Yvonne, 2012. "Setting Priorities, Targeting Subsidies among Water, Sanitation, and Preventive Health Interventions in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1546-1568.
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