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Unemployment dynamics in Britain

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  • Simon Burgess
  • Hélène Turon

Abstract

We examine the inter-related dynamics of the unemployment flows and stock. Our model allows them to be linked through the standard accounting identity, but also through behavioural relationships. We find that, for the UK, the bulk of the correlation between duration and the unemployment stock arises from the dependence of duration on unemployment, taking careful account of the inter-temporal identity. Outflow shocks have contributed little to the evolution of unemployment since the late 1960s. Given that the correlation of duration and unemployment arises from the behavioural relationship, we show that unemployment dynamics arise mostly from shocks to the inflow. Copyright 2005 Royal Economic Society.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 115 (2005)
Issue (Month): 503 (04)
Pages: 423-448

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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:115:y:2005:i:503:p:423-448

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Cited by:
  1. Michael W. L. Elsby & Jennifer C. Smith & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2011. "The Role of Worker Flows in the Dynamics and Distribution of UK Unemployment," CEP Discussion Papers dp1058, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  2. Chew Lian Chua & Robert Dixon & G. C. Lim, 2007. "What Drives Worker Flows?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2007n34, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  3. Michal Franta, 2008. "Time Aggregation Bias in Discrete Time Models of Aggregate Duration Data," Working Papers 2008/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  4. Gomes, Pedro Maia, 2010. "Labour Market Flows: Facts from the United Kingdom," IZA Discussion Papers 5327, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Lin, Ching-Yang & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2012. "Gross worker flows and unemployment dynamics in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 44-61.
  6. Robert Dixon & John Freebairn & G. C. Lim, 2006. "Time-Varying Equilibrium Rates of Unemployment: An Analysis with Australian Data," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2006n11, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  7. Marian Dinga, 2008. "The Impact of Territorially Concentraced FDI on Local Labor Markets: Evidence from the Czech Republic," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp348, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  8. Simonetta Longhi, 2011. "On-The-Job Search: Amount, Regional, And Cyclical Variation. Evidence From Great Britain," ERSA conference papers ersa10p294, European Regional Science Association.
  9. Dinga, Marián & Münich, Daniel, 2010. "The impact of territorially concentrated FDI on local labor markets: Evidence from the Czech Republic," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 354-367, April.
  10. Richard D. Barwell & Mark E. Schweitzer, 2005. "The incidence of nominal and real wage rigidities in Great Britain: 1978–1998," Working Paper 0508, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  11. Gomes, Pedro, 2009. "Labour market flows: facts from the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 367, Bank of England.
  12. Robert Dixon, 2007. "Common Cycles in Labour Market Separation Rates for Australian States," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 991, The University of Melbourne.
  13. Julie L. Hotchkiss & John C. Robertson, 2006. "Asymmetric labor force participation decisions over the business cycle: evidence from U.S. microdata," Working Paper 2006-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

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