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Imperfect Knowledge and Behaviour in the Foreign Exchange Market

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  • Goldberg, Michael D
  • Frydman, Roman
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    Abstract

    This paper explores the consequences of imperfect knowledge for exchange rate dynamics within the monetary class of models. The authors' framework, which they call the theories consistent expectations framework, provides a particular formalization of a world in which agents use theories in order to look forward but in which these theories provide only qualitative knowledge rather than quantitative knowledge about the economy. The authors find that, as long as agents possess at least some degree of imperfect knowledge, the monetary models of the exchange rate generate dynamics consistent with the behavior observed in the literature. Copyright 1996 by Royal Economic Society.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

    Volume (Year): 106 (1996)
    Issue (Month): 437 (July)
    Pages: 869-93

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    Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:106:y:1996:i:437:p:869-93

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    Cited by:
    1. Fanelli, Luca, 2008. "Evaluating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve under VAR-Based Learning," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-15, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    2. Nelson C. Mark & Yangru Wu, 1997. "Risk, Policy Rules, and Noise: Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-041/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "The dollar-euro exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals: a time-varying coefficient approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 11-40, April.
    4. W A Razzak & Thomas Grennes, 1998. "The long-run nominal exchange rate: specification and estimation issues," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/5, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    5. Richard H. Cohen & Carl Bonham, 2007. "Specifying the Forecast Generating Process for Exchange Rate Survey Forecasts," Working Papers 200718, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    6. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate?: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 944, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Carl Bonham & Richard Cohen & Shigeyuki Abe, 2006. "The Rationality and Heterogeneity of Survey Forecasts of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate: A Reexamination," Working Papers 200611, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    8. Fanelli, Luca, 2008. "Evaluating New Keynesian Phillips Curve under VAR-Based Learning," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2(33), pages 1-24.
    9. Owen F. Humpage, 1998. "The Federal Reserve as an informed foreign-exchange trader," Working Paper 9815, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    10. Aurel Iancu, 2008. "Nominal Convergence," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 53-73, November.
    11. Gordon Menzies & Daniel Zizzo, 2006. "Exchange Rate Markets And Conservative Inferential Expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2007-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Pollock, Andrew C. & Macaulay, Alex & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Wilkie-Thomson, Mary E., 1999. "Evaluating predictive performance of judgemental extrapolations from simulated currency series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 281-293, April.
    13. Nelson Mark & Yangru Wu, 1998. "Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: The Role of Covariance Risk and Noise," Working Papers 98-05, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    14. repec:dgr:uvatin:1997041 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Bruce Lyons & Gordon Menzies & Daniel Zizzo, 2012. "Conflicting evidence and decisions by agency professionals: an experimental test in the context of merger regulation," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 73(3), pages 465-499, September.
    16. Timo Henckel & Gordon Menzies & Daniel Zizzo, 2010. "Inferential Expectations and the Missing Middle of Price Changes," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 008, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    17. repec:dgr:uvatin:2097041 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Iancu, Aurel, 2009. "Real Economic Convergence," Working Papers of National Institute of Economic Research 090104, National Institute of Economic Research.

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