On Perfect Foresight Models of a Stochastic World
AbstractLong-run analysis is often based on perfect foresight equilibrium relationships arbitrarily augmented to incorporate stochastic shocks. This paper examines whether perfect foresight models admit interpretations as limits of stochastic economies and reflect long-run behavior and policy effects. It provides a novel interpretation of such models, specifies consistency criteria for long-run analysis, and proposes metrics for model convergence. Analytical and calibration exercises are conducted to show that convergence to perfect foresight need not occur and even when it occurs it does not ensure that relationships between long-run averages or low-frequency components are captured by perfect foresight models. Copyright 1994 by Royal Economic Society.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.
Volume (Year): 104 (1994)
Issue (Month): 424 (May)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Office of the Secretary-General, School of Economics and Finance, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Fife, KY16 9AL, UK
Phone: +44 1334 462479
Web page: http://www.res.org.uk/
More information through EDIRC
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Haliassos, Michael & Hassapis, Christis, 2001.
"Non-expected Utility, Saving and Portfolios,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(468), pages 69-102, January.
- Panos Pashardes & Soteroula Hajispyrou, 2002. "Consumer Demand and Welfare under Increasing Block Pricing," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 0207, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
- Carol C. Bertaut & Michael Haliassos, 1996.
"Precautionary Portfolio Behavior from a Life-Cycle Perspective,"
- Bertaut, Carol C. & Haliassos, Michael, 1997. "Precautionary portfolio behavior from a life-cycle perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1511-1542, June.
- Carol C. Bertaut & Michael Haliassos, 1996. "Precautionary portfolio behavior from a life-cycle perspective," International Finance Discussion Papers 542, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Michael Haliassos & Christis Hassapis, 1998.
"Borrowing Constraints, Portfolio Choice, and Precautionary Motives: Theoretical Predictions and Empirical Complications,"
CSEF Working Papers
11, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Michael Haliassos & Christis Hassapis, 1999. "Borrowing Constraints, Portfolio Choice and Precautionary Motives: Theoretical Predictions and Empirical Complications," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1341, Society for Computational Economics.
- Christou, Costas & Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tavlas, George S., 1998. "A general framework for predicting returns from multiple currency investments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 977-1000, May.
- Panos Hatzipanayotou & Sajal Lahiri & Michael S. Michael, 2002.
"Reforms of Environmental Policies in the Presence of Cross-border Pollution and Two-stage Clean-up,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
638, CESifo Group Munich.
- Panos Hatzipanayotou & Sajal Lahiri & Michael S. Michael, 2002. "Reforms of Environmental Policies in the Presence of Cross-border Pollution and two Stage Clean Up," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 0203, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
- Hatzipanayotou, Panos & Sajal Lahiri & Michael S.Michael, 2002. "Reforms of Environmental Policies in the presence of Cross-border Pollution and Two-stage Clean-up," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 97, Royal Economic Society.
- Michael Haliassos & Christis Hassapis, 1998. "Borrowing Constraints, Portfolio Choice, and Precautionary," Macroeconomics 9809008, EconWPA.
- Michael Haliassos, 2002. "Stockholding: Recent Lessons from Theory and Computations," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 0206, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.