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Public debt, the terms of trade and welfare in an overlapping generations model with lifetime uncertainty

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Author Info
Dirk Willenbockel () (Middlesex University Business School)

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Abstract

This article reconsiders the relationship between government debt and welfare in a two-country overlapping-generations model with lifetime uncertainty and international product differentiation. It has recently been proposed that a higher steady-state debt level may be welfare-enhancing in this setting. It is pointed out that this proposition does not adequately account for the effect of debt policy on individual agents’ intertemporal consumption profiles. While a higher debt may indeed raise aggregate steady-state consumption, the lifetime utility of all steady-state cohorts will actually drop, unless the elasticity of substitution between domestic output and imports is extremely low. These particular results illustrate a more general caveat pertaining to any normative policy analysis in settings with overlapping generations of intertemporally optimizing agents: Attempts to draw welfare inferences on the basis of comparisons of aggregate consumption paths can be misleading.

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File URL: http://economicsbulletin.vanderbilt.edu/2005/volume5/EB-05E60004A.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Economics Bulletin in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 5 (2005)
Issue (Month): 10 ()
Pages: 1-8
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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2005:i:10:p:1-8

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Related research
Keywords: government debt intertemporal choice. lifetime uncertainty Overlapping generations perpetual youth model terms of trade welfare

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Willem H. Buiter, 1987. "Fiscal policy in open, interdependent economies," NBER Working Papers 1429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Calvo, Guillermo A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1988. "Optimal Time-Consistent Fiscal Policy with Finite Lifetimes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(2), pages 411-32, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ghosh, Sugata, 1998. "Can Higher Debt Lead to Higher Welfare? A Theoretical and Numerical Analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 111-16, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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