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The lead of output over inflation in sticky price models

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Author Info
Michael Kiley () (Federal Reserve Board and OECD)

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Abstract

Output growth is negatively correlated with inflation, detrended output is positively correlated with inflation, and output growth and detrended output lead inflation. I explore the consistency of these correlations with three models of price adjustment: the partial adjustment model, a staggered price setting model, and the P-bar model. The ratio of the variance of supply to demand shocks necessary to match the pattern of output-inflation correlations can be ranked across the three models; the P-Bar model requires the lowest ratio, and the partial adjustment model requires the highest ratio. The imperfect information aspects of staggered price setting and the P-bar model drive some of the output/inflation nexus, highlighting a link with the tradition from Hume to Lucas to recent work by Mankiw and Reis.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Economics Bulletin in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 5 (2002)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 1-7
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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2002:i:5:p:1-7

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Related research
Keywords: and P-bar Model; Output/Inflation Correlation; Partial Adjustment (Calvo Model); Phase Shift; Staggered Price Setting;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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  2. McCallum, Bennett T., 1979. "A monetary policy ineffectiveness result in a model with a predetermined price level," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-4. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Portier, Franck, 1993. "Money, New-Keynesian macroeconomics and the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1533-1568, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
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  15. Judd, John P & Trehan, Bharat, 1995. "The Cyclical Behavior of Prices: Interpreting the Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 789-97, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information: A Model of Monetary Nonneutrality and Structural Slumps," NBER Working Papers 8614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. Kiley, Michael T, 2002. "Partial Adjustment and Staggered Price Setting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 283-98, May.
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  24. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael T. Kiley, 1997. "Efficiency wages, nominal rigidities, and the cyclical behavior of real wages and marginal cost," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. James Peery Cover & Paul Pecorino, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy and the Correlation between Prices and Output," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 0(1). [Downloadable!]
  3. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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