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A disaggregate approach to economic models of voting in U.S. presidential elections: forecasts of the 2008 election

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Author Info
Stephen Haynes () (Department of Economics, University of Oregon)
Joe Stone () (Department of Economics, University of Oregon)

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Abstract

By examining disaggregate state-level data, we address two weaknesses of prior estimates of economic voting models in U.S. Presidential elections. First, our disaggregate approach substantially improves statistical power, thus reducing the danger of “over- fitting.” Second, our analysis demonstrates systematic differences in voting behavior across states, which have been ignored: voters in higher-income states respond significantly to inflation, changes in the Dow-Jones stock market average, the number of terms the incumbent party has held office, and measures of national security concerns, yet voters in lower-income states respond significantly only to economic growth. Our forecasts for the 2008 U.S. Presidential election predict a statistical dead-heat overall, but a systematic preference for Senator John McCain in lower-income states and for Senator Barack Obama in higher-income states.

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File URL: http://economicsbulletin.vanderbilt.edu/2008/volume4/EB-08D70032A.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Economics Bulletin in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 4 (2008)
Issue (Month): 28 ()
Pages: 1-11
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:v:4:y:2008:i:28:p:1-11

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Postal: Economics Bulletin, Department of Economics, 414 Calhoun Hall, Vanderbilt University, Nashville TN 37235, USA
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Related research
Keywords: Presidential elections; economic models of voting; economics and elections;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
A1 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Stephen E. Haynes & Joe A. Stone, 1994. "Why Did Economic Models Falsely Predict A Bush Landslide In 1992?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(2), pages 123-130, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Moulton, Brent R, 1990. "An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Unit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 334-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-73, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Jayadev, Arjun, 2006. "Differing preferences between anti-inflation and anti-unemployment policy among the rich and the poor," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 67-71, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Statistics
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-12.

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