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Why Do Pooled Forecasts Do Better Than Individual Forecasts Ex Post?

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Author Info
Diego Nocetti () (Clarkson University)
William T. Smith () (The University of Memphis)

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Abstract

Pooled forecasts frequently outperform individual forecasts of economic time series. This paper shows that the introduction of model uncertainty into the formation of expectations can account for the regularity. We conjecture that agents learn in a Bayesian way, using an optimally designed combination of forecasts to form expectations. When these expectations alter the ex-post realization of the data generating mechanism the pooled forecast may dominate the best individual device.

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File URL: http://economicsbulletin.vanderbilt.edu/2006/volume4/EB-06D80016A.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Economics Bulletin in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 4 (2006)
Issue (Month): 36 ()
Pages: 1-7
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:v:4:y:2006:i:36:p:1-7

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Related research
Keywords: Expectations; Model Uncertainty; Pooled Forecasts;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Boivin, Jean, 2003. "Monetary policy in a data-rich environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 525-546, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 1999. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 9903003, EconWPA, revised 06 Oct 2001. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Forecasting U.S. inflation by Bayesian Model Averaging," International Finance Discussion Papers 780, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  4. repec:att:wimass:1920419 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Model Uncertainty and Policy Evaluation: Some Theory and Empirics," NBER Working Papers 10916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Bray, Margaret M & Savin, Nathan E, 1986. "Rational Expectations Equilibria, Learning, and Model Specification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1129-60, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts," International Finance Discussion Papers 779, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  8. repec:att:wimass:1920315 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Avramov, Doron, 2002. "Stock return predictability and model uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 423-458, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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