The traditional continuous and smooth models, like the GARCH model, may fail to capture extreme returns volatility. Therefore, this study applies the bivariate poisson (CBP)-GARCH model to study jump dynamics in price volatility of crude oil and heating oil during the past 20 years. The empirical results indicate that the variance and covariance of the GARCH and CBP-GARCH models were found to be similar in low jump intensity periods and to diverge during jump events. Significant overestimations occur during high jump time periods in the GARCH model because of assumptions of continuity, and easily leading to excessive hedging and overly measuring risk. Nevertheless, in the CBP-GARCH model, the specific shocks are assumed to be independent of normal volatility and to reduce the persistence of abnormal volatility. Therefore, the CBP-GARCH model is appropriate and necessary in high volatility markets.
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Article provided by Economics Bulletin in its journal Economics Bulletin.
Find related papers by JEL classification: C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables G0 - Financial Economics - - General
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, SŽbastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2003.
"Multivariate GARCH models: a survey,"
CORE Discussion Papers
2003031, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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