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Tourism’s Impact on Long-Run Mexican Economic Growth

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Author Info
Juan Gabriel Brida () (Free University of Bolzano, Italy.)
Edgar J Sanchez Carrera () (University of Siena)
W. Adrian Risso () (University of Siena)

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Abstract

Tourism is one of the most important factors in the productivity of Mexican economy with significant multiplier effects on economic activity. This paper investigates possible causal relationships among tourism expenditure, real exchange rate and economic growth by using quarterly data. Johansen cointegration analysis shows the existence of one cointegrated vector among real GDP, tourism expenditure and real exchange rate where the corresponding elasticities are positive. The tourism-led growth hypothesis is confirmed through cointegration and causality testing. Tourism expenditure and Real Exchange Rate (RER) are weakly exogenous to real GDP. A modified version of the Granger Causality test shows that causality goes unidirectionally from tourism expenditure and RER to real GDP. Impulse response analysis shows that a shock in tourism expenditure produces a short fall and then a positive effect on growth.

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File URL: http://economicsbulletin.vanderbilt.edu/2008/volume3/EB-07C20155A.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Economics Bulletin in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 3 (2008)
Issue (Month): 21 ()
Pages: 1-8
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:21:p:1-8

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Related research
Keywords: economic growth; Johansen cointegration test; Granger causality; tourism-led growth hypothesis.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
O0 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Isabel Cortés_Jiménez & Manuela Pulina, 2006. "A further step into the ELGH and TLGH for Spain and Italy," Working Papers 2006.118, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
  2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  3. Shan, Jordan & Wilson, Ken, 2001. "Causality between Trade and Tourism: Empirical Evidence from China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 279-83, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  6. Gani, Azmat, 1998. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Growth in the South Pacific Island Economies," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(12), pages 747-49, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. McCallum, Bennett T., 1984. "On low-frequency estimates of long-run relationships in macroeconomics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-14, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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