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Should we care for structural breaks when assessing fiscal sustainability?

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Author Info
Christophe Rault () (Université d’Orléans, LEO, CNRS, UMR 6221, France; IZA, Germany; and William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan, USA,)
António Afonso () (ISEG/TULisbon - Technical University of Lisbon, Department of Economics; UECE)

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Abstract

We apply recent panel cointegration methods to a structural equation between government expenditure and revenue. Allowing for multiple endogenous breaks and after computing appropriate bootstrap critical values, we conclude for fiscal sustainability in the overall EU15 panel.We apply recent panel cointegration methods to a structural equation between government expenditure and revenue. Allowing for multiple endogenous breaks and after computing appropriate bootstrap critical values, we conclude for fiscal sustainability in the overall EU15 panel.

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File URL: http://economicsbulletin.vanderbilt.edu/2007/volume3/EB-07C20154A.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Economics Bulletin in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 3 (2007)
Issue (Month): 63 ()
Pages: 1-9
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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:63:p:1-9

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming

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  1. Westerlund, Joakim & Edgerton, David L., 2007. "A panel bootstrap cointegration test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 185-190, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Joakim Westerlund, 2006. "Testing for Panel Cointegration with Multiple Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(1), pages 101-132, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 351-374, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June. [Downloadable!]
  5. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-, March.
    Other versions:
  6. Haug, Alfred A, 1991. "Cointegration and Government Borrowing Constraints: Evidence for the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 97-101, January.
  7. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Anindya Banerjee & Josep Lluís, 2006. "Cointegration in panel data with breaks and cross-section dependence," Working Paper Series 591, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
  10. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Silika Prohl & Friedrich G. Schneider, 2006. "Sustainability of Public Debt and Budget Deficit: Panel cointegration analysis for the European Union Member countries," Economics working papers 2006-10, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria. [Downloadable!]
  13. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Anindya Banerjee & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2006. "Cointegration in Panel Data with Breaks and Cross-Section Dependence," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/5, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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