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Do the Malthusian fears ever die? A note on the recent increase in food prices

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Author Info
Argentino Pessoa () (Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto)

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Abstract

Beginning with a snapshot of the recent raise in food prices, the present paper put in question the hypothesis of it be a response to the near end of resources. Examining some medium and long-run factors that explain the evolution of food production, with special focus on cereals, using data of the World Bank for the last 45 years, and a regression for a cross-section of 106 countries, we show that: a) the capacity to feed a growing population has been associated to a sustained increase in productivity, measured by the cereal yields; b) the increase in cereal yields is negatively associated to the increase in land under cereal production; c) there is large room to go on increasing cereal production and productivity in low and middle-income countries, profiting from the productivity gap that differentiate them from the high-income countries. So, the main conclusion is that the Limits to Grow’ perspective and the associated Malthusian fears have no empirical support.

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File URL: http://economicsbulletin.vanderbilt.edu/2008/volume17/EB-08Q00019A.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Economics Bulletin in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 17 (2008)
Issue (Month): 22 ()
Pages: 1-11
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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:v:17:y:2008:i:22:p:1-11

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Related research
Keywords: Cereal yields; food prices; population growth; limits to growth.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Argentino Pessoa, 2008. "Public-private partnerships in developing countries: are infrastructures responding to the new ODA strategy?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 311-325. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Romer, Paul, 1993. "Idea gaps and object gaps in economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 543-573, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Rosegrant, Mark W. & Paisner, Michael S. & Meijer, Siet & Witcover, Julie, 2001. "2020 Global food outlook," Food policy reports 30, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  6. Argentino Pessoa, 2008. "Public-Private Sector Partnerships In Developing Countries: Are Infrastructures Responding To The New Oda Strategy," FEP Working Papers 266, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto. [Downloadable!]
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