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Oil price and macroeconomy in Russia

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Author Info
Katsuya Ito () (Fukuoka University)
Abstract

In this note, using the VEC model we attempt to empirically investigate the effects of oil price and monetary shocks on the Russian economy covering the period between 1997:Q1 and 2007:Q4. The analysis leads to the finding that a 1% increase in oil prices contributes to real GDP growth by 0.25% over the next 12 quarters, whereas that to inflation by 0.36% over the corresponding periods. We also find that the monetary shock through interest rate channel immediately affects real GDP and inflation as predicted by theory.

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File URL: http://economicsbulletin.vanderbilt.edu/2008/volume17/EB-08Q40019A.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Economics Bulletin in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 17 (2008)
Issue (Month): 17 ()
Pages: 1-9
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:v:17:y:2008:i:17:p:1-9

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Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Burbidge, John & Harrison, Alan, 1984. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 459-84, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Peter Ferderer, J., 1996. "Oil price volatility and the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Rautava, Jouko, 2002. "The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Marvin J. Barth III & Valerie A. Ramey, 2000. "The Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission," NBER Working Papers 7675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2001. "Estimation of direct and indirect impact of oil price on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 147-153, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Knut Anton Mork & Oystein Olsen & Hans Terje Mysen, 1994. "Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 15(4), pages 19-36.
  12. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-44, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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