IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-14-00288.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Nexus between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty via wavelet approach: Some Lessons from Egyptian case

Author

Listed:
  • Jamal Bouoiyour

    (University of Pau)

  • Refk Selmi

    (Business School of Tunis)

Abstract

The nexus between inflation and its uncertainty has been a topic of wide dispute. Using wavelet decomposition and with special reference to Egypt for the period 1960-2013, we find that the focal relationship varies substantially among the different frequencies involved. There is no evidence of significant link in the short-run. In the medium term, higher inflation leads to greater volatility and in the long-run, inflation expands inflation uncertainty and vice versa. The main causes of these mixed outcomes have been organized into demand pull factors, cost push ones and conflicting underlying objectives needed to attenuate the detrimental effects of the deeper political instability that unfolded since 25th January 2011.

Suggested Citation

  • Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2014. "The Nexus between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty via wavelet approach: Some Lessons from Egyptian case," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(4), pages 2093-2106.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-14-00288
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2014/Volume34/EB-14-V34-I4-P193.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2013. "The effects of central banks' independence on inflation outcomes in emerging countries: Does the choice of exchange regime matter?," Post-Print hal-01886584, HAL.
    2. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    3. Pourgerami, Abbas & Maskus, Keith E., 1987. "The effects of inflation on the predictability of price changes in Latin America: Some estimates and policy implications," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 287-290, February.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    5. Benhmad, François, 2012. "Modeling nonlinear Granger causality between the oil price and U.S. dollar: A wavelet based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1505-1514.
    6. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
    7. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2014. "Commodity price uncertainty and manufactured exports in Morocco and Tunisia: Some insights from a novel GARCH model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 220-233.
    8. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-514 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
    10. Clive, W.J. & Lin, Jin-Lung, 1995. "Causality in the Long Run," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 530-536, June.
    11. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Suresh K.G., & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "Causality between consumer price and producer price: Evidence from Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 432-440.
    12. François Benhmad, 2012. "Modeling Nonlinear Granger Causality between the Oil price and U.S Dollar," Post-Print hal-03062497, HAL.
    13. Hiemstra Craig & Kramer Charles, 1997. "Nonlinearity and Endogeneity in Macro-Asset Pricing," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(3), pages 1-18, October.
    14. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2014. "The Electricity Consumption in a Rentier State: Do Institutions Matter?," MPRA Paper 55412, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D, 1994. "Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1639-1664, December.
    16. Ysusi Carla, 2009. "Analysis of the Dynamics of Mexican Inflation Using Wavelets," Working Papers 2009-09, Banco de México.
    17. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2015. "GCC countries and the nexus between exchange rate and oil price: What wavelet decomposition reveals?," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1), pages 55-70.
    18. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-472, June.
    19. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2014. "The Electricity Consumption in a Rentier State: Do Institutions Matter ?," Working papers of CATT hal-01880334, HAL.
    20. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Claudiu T. Albulescu & Aviral Kumar Twari & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Time-Frequency Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty for the U.S.: Evidence from Historical Data," Working Papers 201591, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Time–frequency relationship between US inflation and inflation uncertainty: evidence from historical data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(5), pages 673-702, November.
    3. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2014. "The Nexus between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty via wavelet approach: Some Lessons from Egyptian case," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(4), pages 2093-2106.
    2. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2013. "Nonlinearities and the nexus between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Egypt: New evidence from wavelets transform framework," MPRA Paper 52414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Nora Abu Asab & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2018. "Inflation targeting or exchange rate targeting: Which framework supports the goal of price stability in emerging market economies?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Ran TAO & Zheng-Zheng LI & Xiao-Lin LI & Chi-Wei SU, 2018. "A Reexamination of Friedman-Ball’s Hypothesis in Slovakia - Evidence from Wavelet Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 41-54, December.
    5. Biru Paksha Paul, 2013. "Inflation--growth nexus: some bivariate EGARCH evidence for Bangladesh," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 66-76, March.
    6. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "The Euro and inflation uncertainty in the European Monetary Union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 954-971, October.
    7. James Payne, 2009. "Inflation targeting and the inflation-inflation uncertainty relationship: evidence from Thailand," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 233-238.
    8. Carmen PINTILESCU & Mircea ASANDULUI & Elena-Daniela VIORICA & Danut-Vasile JEMNA, 2016. "Investigation On The Causal Relationship Between Inflation, Output Growth And Their Uncertainties In Romania," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 17, pages 71-89, June.
    9. Siti Hamizah Mohd & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Stilianos Fountas, 2013. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty And Output Growth: Recent Evidence From Asean-5 Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 58(04), pages 1-17.
    10. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    11. Korap, Levent & Saatçioğlu, Cem, 2009. "New time series evidence for the causality relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 19246, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Chi-Wei Su & Hui Yu & Hsu-Ling Chang & Xiao-Lin Li, 2017. "How does inflation determine inflation uncertainty? A Chinese perspective," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1417-1434, May.
    13. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2014. "Inflation and Inflation Volatility in Australia," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 33(2), pages 163-185, June.
    14. Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2010. "Dynamics Of Inflation, Output Growth And Their Uncertainty In The Uk: An Empirical Analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(6), pages 511-537, December.
    15. Tariq A.H. Al-Zuhd & Mohammad H. Saleh, 2017. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty Nexus in Kuwait: A GARCH Modeling Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 198-203.
    16. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2013. "Asymmetric and Time-Varying Causality between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in G-7 Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(1), pages 1-42, February.
    17. James Payne, 2009. "Official dollarization in El Salvador and the inflation-inflation uncertainty nexus," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1195-1199.
    18. Abidin Ozdemir, Zeynel & Fisunoglu, Mahir, 2008. "On the inflation-uncertainty hypothesis in Jordan, Philippines and Turkey: A long memory approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-12.
    19. Shah, Said Zamin & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Hook, Law Siong & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2017. "Nominal uncertainty, real uncertainty and macroeconomic performance in a time-varying asymmetric framework: Implications for monetary policy," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 75-93.
    20. Levent, Korap, 2009. "Enflasyon ve enflasyon belirsizliği ilişkisi için G7 ekonomileri üzerine bir inceleme [An investigation for the inflation and inflation uncertainty relationship upon the G7 economies]," MPRA Paper 19478, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; inflation uncertainty; wavelets; Egypt.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-14-00288. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.