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Is there an S-curve relationship between U.S. trade balance and terms of trade? An analysis across industries and countries

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  • Amit Ghosh

    ()
    (Illinois Wesleyan University)

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    Abstract

    A key relationship in international economics is that between trade flows and exchange rates. This paper examines the empirical evidence of S-curve relationship between U.S. trade balance and terms of trade both at the aggregated and disaggregated level from 1989Q1 to 2010Q4. I find evidence of an S-curve for U.S. total trade in all goods and services with the rest of the world, as well as that for overall manufacturing and non-manufacturing categories. I further examine the top 20 industries at the SITC 3-digit level, and find evidence of an S-curve in 15 industries. Finally, the relationship is explored with the major trading partners in each of these twenty industries, also yielding positive evidence for several nations.

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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2012/Volume32/EB-12-V32-I1-P30.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 325-337

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    Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-12-00049

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    Related research

    Keywords: S-curve; trade balance; terms-of-trade; real exchange rates;

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    1. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ratha, Artatrana, 2010. "S-Curve dynamics of trade between U.S. and China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 212-223, June.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2007. "The S-curve Dynamics of US Bilateral Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 430-439, 05.
    3. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ratha, Artarana, 2007. "Bilateral S-curve between Japan and her trading partners," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 483-489, December.
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