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Inflation differentials in EMU: what can we learn from the time series evidence?

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  • Thomai Filippeli

    ()
    (University of Buckingham)

Abstract

This note discusses whether the inflation process in Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain - countries that after the launch of the euro experienced national inflation rates above the weighted average of the EMU- has different time series properties from the EMU average and explains the possible implications of inflation differentials for the union and the national governments of member-countries. We find that the inflation differentials in Greece, Portugal and Spain are a long-run phenomenon which leads to a continuous real exchange appreciation. We interpret this as evidence for the debt problems that have arisen over the last two years in euro area.

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File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2011/Volume31/EB-11-V31-I3-P228.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 31 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 2541-2548

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-11-00512

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Keywords: currency union; inflation differentials; euro area; bayesian estimation;

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  1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2006:i:9:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Christophe Schalck, 2011. "The European fiscal framework: What lessons can we learn from the crisis?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 358-366.
  3. Angeloni Ignazio & Ehrmann Michael, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-36, August.
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