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Macroeconomics of the New and the Used Car Markets

Author

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  • Sylvain M. Prado

    (EconomiX-CNRS, University of Paris Ouest, France and GE Capital Solutions Europe in London, UK)

Abstract

The new cars of today are used cars of tomorrow and some people assume a competition between new and used markets. There are numerous, preconceived ideas and academic theories regarding the interactions between primary and secondary markets. To investigate the relations, we provide a macroeconomic analysis of the French, the British and the US car markets. We aim at answering the following questions. What are the interactions between the new and the second-hand car markets? Can we use the interactions to estimate the car prices of tomorrow? Our results indicate that the relations appear limited for France and the UK, whereas the US market faces a Scitovscky mechanism, defined by constant disequilibrium and multiple interactions between primary and secondary markets. Furthermore, they illustrate that the interrelations are not strong enough to fully explain and forecast market patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvain M. Prado, 2010. "Macroeconomics of the New and the Used Car Markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 1862-1884.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00227
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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2010/Volume30/EB-10-V30-I3-P170.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    2. François Lescaroux & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "On the Influence of Oil Prices on Economic Activity and Other Macroeconomic and Financial Variables," Working Papers 2008-05, CEPII research center.
    3. Fiorito, Riccardo & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1994. "Stylized facts of business cycles in the G7 from a real business cycles perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 235-269, February.
    4. Sylvain Prado, 2010. "A Family Hitch : Econometrics of the New and the Used Car Markets," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-4, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Born, Alexander & Kovachka, Nikoleta & Lessmann, Stefan & Seow, Hsin-Vonn, 2018. "Price Management in the Used-Car Market: An Evaluation of Survival Analysis," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2018-065, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    second-hand market; automotive market; prices; causality; cyclical correlations; VAR.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

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