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Biological characteristics modulating investor overconfidence

Author

Listed:
  • Marcia L. Zindel

    (Department of Production Engineering, University of Brasilia)

  • Emilio Menezes

    (Department of Production Engineering, Federal University of Santa Catarina)

  • Raul Matsushita

    (Department of Statistics, University of Brasilia)

  • Sergio Da Silva

    (Graduate Program in Economics, Federal University of Santa Catarina)

Abstract

Applying a standard questionnaire (Lichtenstein and Fischhoff 1977) to a sample of 44 professional investors, we sought for explicit correlations between selected biological characteristics of the investors and the cognitive bias known as overconfidence. We found that both male and female investors showed overconfidence above the subjective probability of 0.7 and underconfidence below this threshold. But the sexes seemed to behave differently when they were totally uncertain of their answers. Experienced and inexperienced investors were overconfident whenever they were 70 percent (or above) confident of their answers. Despite that, experienced investors were relatively more calibrated. Of those who were highly uncertain of their answers, the inexperienced showed less confidence. Moreover, a logistic regression analysis showed that male subjects, fathers, right-handers, and subjects with a university degree and less than five years of experience in stock markets were more prone to the overconfidence effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcia L. Zindel & Emilio Menezes & Raul Matsushita & Sergio Da Silva, 2010. "Biological characteristics modulating investor overconfidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1496-1508.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00169
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Da Silva, Sergio & Baldo, Dinora & Matsushita, Raul, 2011. "Biological correlates of the Allais paradox - updated," MPRA Paper 32747, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. A. Felipe Rodrigues & Newton Da Costa & Sergio Da Silva, 2011. "Overconfidence and excess entry: a comparison between students and managers," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2549-2557.
    3. da Silva, Eduardo Borges & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Constantino, Michel & Amancio, Diego Raphael & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2020. "Overconfidence and the 2D:4D ratio," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    4. Sergio Da Silva & Bruno Moreira & Newton Da Costa Jr, 2015. "Handedness and digit ratio predict overconfidence in cognitive and motor skill tasks in a sample of preschoolers," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(2), pages 1087-1097.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    overconfidence; biological characteristics;

    JEL classification:

    • C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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