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An empirical analysis of structural changes in emerging market volatility

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  • Duc NGUYEN

    ()
    (ISC Paris School of Management)

Abstract

In this paper, two different stability tests in linear frameworks are used to examine the presence of structural changes in the GARCH-based conditional volatility of emerging market countries. We particularly relate this issue to the market liberalization reforms undertaken by these countries over the last three decades. Empirical results show that structural breaks detected in emerging market volatility do not happen together with official liberalization dates, but they rather coincide with dates of the first American Depository Receipt (ADR) and Country Fund introduction, and with dates of huge increases in the US capital flows into emerging countries. This leads to reinforce the findings of related literature on that emerging markets do react essentially to alternative events of official liberalizations.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 6 (2008)
Issue (Month): 10 ()
Pages: 1-10

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-08f30004

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  1. De Santis, Giorgio & imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1997. "Stock returns and volatility in emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 561-579, August.
  2. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  3. Cunado, Juncal & Gomez Biscarri, Javier & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2006. "Changes in the dynamic behavior of emerging market volatility: Revisiting the effects of financial liberalization," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 261-278, September.
  4. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 79, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  5. William Miles, 2002. "Financial Deregulation And Volatility In Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 113-126, December.
  6. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
  7. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  8. Kim, E Han & Singal, Vijay, 2000. "Stock Market Openings: Experience of Emerging Economies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(1), pages 25-66, January.
  9. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  10. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  11. Kramer, Walter & Ploberger, Werner & Alt, Raimund, 1988. "Testing for Structural Change in Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1355-69, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Todea, Alexandru & Platon, Diana, 2012. "Sudden Changes In Volatility In Central And Eastern Europe Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 38-51, June.
  2. Czinkota, Thomas, 2012. "Das Halteproblem bei Strukturbr├╝chen in Finanzmarktzeitreihen
    [The Halting Problem applied to Structural Breaks in Financial Time Series]
    ," MPRA Paper 37072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. William Shambora & Shamila Jayasuriya, 2008. "The world is shrinking: Evidence for stock market convergence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(14), pages 1-12.

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